2021年8月27日
行業報導 - 2021年8月27日
1、越南紡織服裝企業正面臨訂單取消風險
於8月新冠疫情險惡形勢下，越南紡織及成衣企業正面臨著失去訂單風險，南越超過4/5的紡織及成衣企業被迫減少生產或暫停營運以對抗疫情，北越也僅有70-80%企業在運作。
位於南部平陽省的嘉定集團至今已獲至12月底訂單，但卻其面臨更高的材料價格、延遲發貨、更高的物流成本等問題。據越南報社報導，該公司管理委員會表示，若疫情持續下去，其將無法交付這些訂單。
越南紡織服裝協會(VITAS)武德江主席表示，8月要進行生產”極為困難“，尤其是對南越要實行社交距離政策的公司而言，高達90%週邊供應已斷鏈。
武主席表示，疫情期間交貨壓力，對紡織及成衣企業來說是很大的挑戰，若不能按期交貨，客戶即會取消訂單，這將影響今年及明年的生產。
武主席表示：若越南市場不穩定，合作夥伴即會將訂單轉移至其他國家。服裝屬季節性產品，儘管打折，也沒有人想買過季衣服。
越南工貿部也指出，紡織及成衣企業面臨國際客戶將訂單推遲或取消，並將生產重心轉移至其他國家風險。即使疫情得到控制，也要花很長時間才能恢復業務關係。
武主席提到，許多勞工已離開胡志明市返回家鄉，以避免感染新冠疫情，但即便未來疫情趨緩，預估也只會有60-65%勞工回流。
據越南統計局資料，2021年前7個月越南出口的紡織及成衣產品總額186億美元，相較去年同期成長14.1%。
資料來源：紡織網 (2021年8月24日)
2、BDI指數11年高 運費續看漲 乾散貨貿易復甦 加重船租成本
全球經濟復甦加上疫情造成的船隻短缺和港口處理程序擠擁持續，令全球航運費用大幅飆升，其中反映大宗商品運費的波羅的海乾散貨指數（BDI）周一連漲10天，升1.34%至4147點，創2010年5月以來新高。
據波羅的海交易所（Baltic Exchange）數據顯示，載貨量約15噸的好望角型船（Capesize carriers）每日租金周一升2%至50708美元（約39.55萬港元），是至少2014年以來的最高水平，遠期合約亦顯示乾散貨運費前景持續看漲。
航隊擴充追不上需求
有150年歷史、擁有500艘貨船的丹麥航運公司D/S Norden，其行政總裁林德博（Jan Rindbo）表示，今年較早前，市場仍以為運費只是短暫飆升，但現在愈益相信是結構性和更長期的上漲。
有分析認為，隨着經濟重啟，今年由煤到鐵礦石的商品需求激增，但船隊擴充速度卻追不上貨運需求，最近疫情相關困擾導致可供使用船隻減少，加劇乾散貨輪的供應緊張情況，令市場進一步朝着有利於船東的方向傾斜。
據全球最大船舶經紀商Clarkson旗下的Clarkson Research Services預測，今年全球鐵礦石的海運貿易量將增加4%，創2017年來最大增幅，至15.6億噸，整體乾散貨貿易料升4.2%，明年續增1.7%，反觀今明兩年乾散貨載運力僅分別漲3.3%及1.4%。
DNB Bank股市分析員利安（Joergen Lian）坦言，現時的市場形勢非常有利乾散貨運輸業，市場從去年夏天開始復甦，步伐隨着今年全球貿易回暖而加速。
煤炭原材料進口急飆
Pareto Securities航運分析員哈瓦爾森（Eirik Haavaldse）強調，只要商品市場保持強勁，乾散貨輪運費將持續高企；由於北半球冬季將至，煤炭的進口急增，相信這個趨勢會在今年餘下日子持續。
Precious Shipping董事總經理哈希姆（Khalid Hashim）在訪問中稱，原材料需求正在攀升，尚未見頂，而中國內地港口因實施嚴格的防疫限制導致港口擠塞，變相減少了船隻供應並推高船租。
另一邊廂，乾散貨輪租金飆升大大增加商品生產商的運輸成本負擔。澳洲氧化鋁生產商Alumina周二表示，上半年產品價格雖然按年升9%至每噸290美元，但估計運費高企導致邊際利潤減少每噸16美元。
用於載運氧化鋁的靈便型乾散貨船（Handysize carrier）租金過去一年狂飆超過3倍，Alumina認為這是因為港口擠塞、船員不足和燃料價格上漲所致，認為要全面回復至合理市場，要視乎能否解決疫情相關阻礙。
資料來源：信報財經 (2021年8月25日)
3、外貿下半年放緩 明年形勢料嚴峻 商務部：加強跨周期調控 積極考慮入CPTPP
中國商務部表示，受去年基數較高、一次性因素消退等影響，中國下半年的外貿增長逐步放緩，明年的形勢可能很嚴峻。宏觀政策將加強跨周期調控，防止經濟波幅大起大落。
中國已成為全球第一貿易大國、第二大消費市場，將堅持擴大內需及對外開放，加快與各國的自由貿易協定談判，積極考慮加入CPTPP（Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership，《跨太平洋夥伴全面及進展協定》）。
力擴開放 加快與各國自貿談判
國新辦周一（23日）召開新聞發布會，商務部長王文濤指，中國去年在貨物與服務貿易上的總額均躍居全球第一，今年前7個月的外貿增速達24.5%，創10年來新高，惟涉許多一次性因素，周邊國家的定單因疫情而流入中國，或隨着疫情減緩而流失；疫情前期防疫物資出口急增，當前已大幅回落。中國在去年開始復甦，基數較高，亦不可能持續。
外貿增長在今年下半年逐步放緩，明年形勢可能很嚴峻。企業將面對4方面困難，運費高漲、大宗商品和原料升價、人民幣升值壓力，以及勞動力成本提高，要採取一系列措施穩住市場主體、穩住定單。商務部在宏觀政策上主要圍繞跨周期的調控，透過穩增長、促創新、保暢通、擴合作，使外貿保持在合理區間，防止大起大落對經濟造成傷害。
中國將進一步擴大對外開放，下階段要升級《新加坡自由貿易協定》、《韓國自由貿易協定》等現有的自貿協定，加快與日韓、挪威等的自貿協定談判，並積極考慮加入CPTPP方面的工作。會上不點名批評個別國家將貿易問題政治化，採取單邊主義做法，損害多邊貿易體制有效性。
第二大消費市場 吸外資逆勢增
吸納外資方面，中國去年逆勢增長。王文濤指，商務部繼續縮減負面清單，放寬准入、優化營商環境、依法維護外資企業權益。他重申，以國內大循環為主體並非排除外資。
「消費是經濟增長的一個重要引擎。」王文濤指，中國去社會消費品零售總額達39.2萬億元人民幣，已成為僅次於美國的第二大消費市場。
商務部將進行幾方面工作，提升傳統消費，推動汽車向使用管理轉變、擴大二手車流通、支持家具家電以舊換新；培育新型消費，如智慧商店、無接觸配送、到家服務等新模式，並推動老字號品牌的傳承創新。
資料來源：香港經濟日報 (2021年6月30日)
4、寧波梅山打造國際供應鏈創新中心
建高端智庫引國際專才 優勢產業集群齊頭並進
今年5月，浙江寧波公布《中國（浙江）自由貿易試驗區寧波片區建設方案》，寧波片區的戰略功能定位為打造國際航運和物流樞紐、國際油氣資源配置中心、國際供應鏈創新中心、全球新材料科創中心、全球智能製造高質量發展示範區。
資料來源：香港經濟日報 (2021年8月26日)
5、駱惠寧指香港要牢牢抓住新一輪歷史發展機遇 籲「做好今天才能贏得明天」
中央本周安排宣講團來港，通過多場會議向各界介紹「十四五」規劃，特區政府今日（23日）在政府總部舉辦首場宣講會。中聯辦主任駱惠寧致辭時表示，「十四五」規劃宣講團專程到香港宣講，體現中央對香港的親切關懷及大力支持；又提及香港將面對新一輪歷史發展機遇，呼籲要牢牢抓住，香港社會要進一步行動起來，「不進則退，慢進也是退，唯有做好今天，才能贏得明天」。
駱惠寧表示，今日「十四五」規劃宣講團專程到香港宣講，體現中央對香港的親切關懷及大力支持。他提到，「十四五」規劃對香港發展提出一系列要求，並是首次從政治、經濟、文化等方面全面加以闡述。
他指出，綱要體現中央推動香港實現長期繁榮穩定的戰略考慮，並指出香港的發展已經進入了一個新階段，故呼籲香港社會要進一步把握中央新發展理念要求，全面構展新發展格局。
他續指，香港要融入國家發展大局，不斷提升香港的競爭優勢。他表示，香港之所以擁有國際金融、貿易、航運中心及全國最大離岸人民幣業務中心等地位，源於擁有連結內地的區位優惠及自身良好的投資營商環境。
他強調，縱觀中華民族偉大復興的歷程，誰都不能阻擋，而全球發展最大機遇在於中國，香港的最大發展機遇在內地，認為隨著「十四五」規劃實施及2035年遠景目標，香港面臨新一輪歷史發展機遇，一定要牢牢抓住，香港必定能夠打造新優勢、作出新貢獻。他亦強調，努力開創新未來，發展是永恆的主題，是解決問題的新優勢。
最後，他亦提及，香港須善用國家政策支持，努力開創香港發展新未來；又提到香港近年的撥亂反正及固本清源就是為了維護及發展香港市民的根本福祉，是為了實現香港長期繁榮穩定，是為了推動一國兩制行穩致遠。中央一直關注香港的經濟發展及民生改善，「十四五」規劃再次明確香港發展新定位，並給予更多支持，現需要香港社會進一步行動起來，並指市場經濟競爭激烈，「不進則退，慢進也是退，唯有做好今天，才能贏得明天」。
【十四五規劃綱要】林鄭月娥指「十四五」規劃設港澳專章 為港帶來千載難逢機會
https://topick.hket.com/article/3039469?r=cpsdlc
【十四五規劃綱要】黃柳權指林鄭月娥展示事不避難精神 相信她能團結社會各界砥礪奮進
資料來源：香港經濟日報 (2021年8月23日)
6、供應鏈智能化 助香港從亞太物流業突圍
香港長久以來一直被譽為世界舉足輕重的物流樞紐之一。航運和物流業亦屬於香港的主要經濟支柱，佔香港的本地生產總值約22%，支撐20%勞動人口的就業機會。然而，香港不能夠裹足不前，若要在亞太區的物流網絡中保持領先地位，必須持續提升在物流方面發展的能力。
對於供應鏈而言，過去十年艱難重重。 2020年，疫情的蔓延及蘇伊士運河堵塞事件更為全球供應鏈帶來前所未見的風險，一連串的挑戰更加突顯出加強數碼韌性、成本控制及可持續發展的重要性。
善用數碼工具有利應對逆境
Orange在今年一月發佈的報告《Real time intelligence and the future of the supply chain》發現，疫情的蔓延令40%的跨國企業供應鏈受到嚴重打擊，有見及此，83%的企業指出，與一年前相比，他們現時更加了解供應鏈中繼可引致的風險。
人工智能(Artificial Intelligence)、機器學習(Machine Learning)等數碼工具能大大幫助供應鏈轉型，提升可預測性及靈敏度，從而令供應鏈更有韌性。
Harvard Business Review Analytic Services的調查發現，將供應商的數據數碼化是企業領導在2021年的首要任務。可是，我們發現在應用數碼工具方面，香港物流業未有充足準備。根據Google 香港在2020年公佈的準備度指數》，香港物流業對人工智能認知及應用方面的準備程度只得53分(100 為滿分)，是調查中涵蓋的四個行業之中最低。
供應鏈智能化成關鍵
人工智能和機器學習不斷在供應鏈中的數據學習，從而持續更新系統，不間斷的更新可以減少建立及配置新流程模型所需的時間，意味著供應鏈流程管理的進程愈來愈有效率。另外，他們也可以為供應鏈提供可預測性，助企業按照需求提供合適的供應量。對需求量有充分了解和明白如何應對供應鏈中斷對企業之言是不可或缺的能力，而這些正正是人工智能和機器學習可支援企業之處。
超級自動化將成為供應鏈技術上的新趨勢，結合了人工智能、機器學習、物聯網(Internet of Things)和機械人流程自動化(Robotic Process Automation)等科技，取替人手處理供應鏈中重複性的工作，以減少出錯機會，更可騰出時間，讓企業員工親自處理較為複雜的任務，從而使供應鏈運作更有效率和更安全。
此外，機械人流程自動化和人工智能能夠配合其他技術，以改善業務決策、分析數據和評估風險，從而減少出錯的機率，提升供應鏈整體上的效率和韌性。
香港供應鏈需為未來做好準備
在不久將來，供應鏈將會由數據驅動，實現實時更新，提升透明度、準確度、韌性和效率。另外，新冠肺炎推動了整個香港物流業的數碼化轉型。在2020年9月，香港政府宣布撥款約3.45億港元以促進投資物流科技，香港財政司司長陳茂波指出此舉是為了「幫助香港在全球供應鏈、資本流動和科技競賽中保持領先地位」。
為了促進科技發展，香港政府還建設了五個供應鏈數碼化研發中心，當中包括物流及供應鏈多元技術研發中心（LSCM）。透過香港政府約6.98億港元的創新及科技基金的支援，LSCM在工業界、學術界和公共部門之間開展了超過160個供應鏈項目。
香港的物流企業首先需要明白部署人工智能和機器學習等科技可以帶來的價值，再使用智能預測和數據分析等技術提升效率和準確度，以協助決策，使香港物流業更上一層樓，為未來的挑戰做好準備。
資料來源：香港經濟日報 (2021年8月23日)
7、Shanghai airport terminal closure leads logistics firms to expect cargo delays
Dive Brief:
● Freighter suspensions that began Friday remain in effect at Shanghai Pudong International Airport after the Shanghai Health Commission reported five new COVID-19 cases among cargo workers.
● One of the airport's terminals, PACTL, closed due to the new cases, with around one-third of flights out of PVG airport affected, according to Ligentia. Before the closure took place, Shanghai Pudong airport was only operating at 33% capacity due to China's quarantine measures.
● "It is still unknown when flights will operate again," Matt Castle, vice president of air freight products and services at C.H. Robinson, said in an email Monday.
Dive Insight:
Affected freighter flights won't operate out of the airport again until the area is considered safe due to "China's zero-tolerance Covid-19 policy," Castle said. China has implemented strict measures to contain the spread of COVID-19, leading to strains on already limited air cargo capacity out of the country.
"At Shanghai Pudong, for example, staff have been asked to work for seven days, quarantine in a hotel for seven days and then quarantine at home for a further seven days," Ligentia said. "As a result of staff quitting, long handling times (2-3 times longer than normal) have been recorded and some cargo flights have taken off with very little or no cargo over the weekend."
Logistics companies expect delays and longer transit times due to the suspensions. Shanghai Pudong International handles more than 3.1 million tons of cargo annually and "is one of the main loading nodes in China," according to ShipHub. Mechanical and electrical products, along with automobiles, make up a large share of Shanghai's exports in 2020, the city said in a news release.
"The impact of this suspension will see a serious backlog in PVG in the coming days," SEKO Logistics said on Twitter. "Airlines are diverting flights to airports to the South or West of China."
SEKO also said some forwarders are considering alternative export methods, such as shipping via ocean to Singapore and flying out of Singapore Changi airport. Maersk said in a customer advisory Friday it's adding capacity with flights in less affected airports to reduce the impact to customers.
Some cargo flights have already been diverted to Hong Kong, and the closure of the terminal's cargo operations will lift airfreight rates from China further, according to Ligentia.
Airfreight rates from China were at $8.10 per kilogram as of Aug. 16, an almost 6% increase from a month ago, according to the TAC Index, with a tight ocean freight market and peak season preparations driving demand. The Asia-to-North America airfreight market is in "critical" status after seeing capacity drop while spot rates are trending up, C.H. Robinson said in a freight market update.
Source: www.supplychaindive.com (23 Aug 2021)
8、Bangladesh Accord Goes Global in Long-Awaited Renewal, But Who’s on Board?
Apparel brands and labor unions reached a deal on Wednesday for a tentative agreement that will maintain and continue the work of the Accord on Fire and Building Safety in Bangladesh while expanding it to other garment-producing countries.
Like its predecessor, the new International Accord for Health and Safety in the Textile and Garment Industry will be legally binding. Slated for two years to begin with, it goes into effect on Sept. 1, one day after a three-month extension of the Transition Accord is set to expire. The work of the International Accord will be overseen by the Accord Secretariat, a fully independent body invested with the authority to verify and enforce brand compliance. Critically, only brands that sign this new agreement will be able to partake in services from the Ready-made Garment Sustainability Council (RSC) in Bangladesh, the tripartite national body that has taken over the monitoring and inspection responsibilities of the Accord in the country.
“This agreement will begin the long-awaited expansion of this model that holds brands legally accountable to other countries where workers’ lives continue to be at risk,” said Ineke Zeldenrust, international coordinator at the Clean Clothes Campaign, the garment industry’s largest consortium of labor unions and nonprofits. “In many of these countries, unions and labor rights organizations have been asking for effective action in the field of workplace safety for years. We are happy this agreement will now become truly international and look forward to it being expanded soon to the countries where the need is highest and the demand is greatest.”
As its name implies, the scope of the International Accord is broader, covering general health and safety rather than fire and building safety alone. The program will begin in earnest in Bangladesh, where the first Accord emerged in the aftermath of the 2013 collapse of the multi-factory Rana Plaza complex, which killed 1,134 garment workers and injured scores more. Signatories will commit to extending those efforts to at least one another country within the first two years, with feasibility studies commencing immediately after signing. The agreement will also address human-rights due diligence, a growing liability concern for businesses as supply-chain legislation in the European Union and elsewhere ramps up.
“This International Accord is an important victory towards making the textile and garment industry safe and sustainable,” said Valter Sanches, general secretary of IndustriALL Global Union. “The agreement maintains the legally binding provision for companies and most importantly the scope has been expanded to other countries and other provisions, encompassing general health and safety. Now, the textile and garment companies must show their commitment and sign the renewed International Accord.”
To say that the negotiation process has been long and arduous would be an understatement. As talks heated up over the summer, several of the Accord’s earliest champions threw their support not behind a renewed agreement but rather the RSC, drawing criticism from labor organizations for failing to use their “considerable power to ensure that advances on supply chain factory safety are maintained” and endangering workers’ lives as a result. In May, IndustriALL Global Union and UNI quit the RSC, citing its ineffectiveness as a worker-safety organization because of its lack of enforceability, individual brand accountability and independent monitoring. They rejoined after the three-month extension for the Accord was inked.
While labor campaigners told Sourcing Journal that a “first wave” of names will be announced at the International Accord’s launch next week, several of the Bangladesh Accord’s nearly 200 original, mostly European signatories, including H&M, C&A and Zara owner Inditex, confirmed their participation. (Whether American companies such as Gap and Walmart, which flocked to the voluntary—and some say watered-down—Alliance for Bangladesh Worker Safety, now known as Nirapon, will climb aboard is a big question.)
“As one of the first signatories of the original Accord on Fire and Building Safety, Inditex is delighted to be one of the brands leading the formation of this new agreement,” an Inditex spokesperson said. “This will allow the industry to build globally on the progress made in Bangladesh, and will deliver new commitments to the safety of workers across the supply chain.”
Martijn van der Zee, chief merchandise and sourcing officer at the C&A, said that signing the agreement underlines the Belgian-Dutch-German retailer’s “commitment to working with labor unions and the industry to create lasting change in fire and building safety in Bangladesh.”
H&M, which initially promoted the RSC—and by extension self-regulation—as an alternative, appeared to swerve at the final minute.
“For me, living and working in Bangladesh, it has been evident what remarkable change the textile industry has gone through thanks to the Accord,” said Masarrat Quader, the Swedish retailer’s public affairs and stakeholder engagement manager. “I’m proud to have been a part of fruitful and important discussions with other brands and trade unions leading up to this ground-breaking agreement. I’m convinced it will not only honor all the great work being done so far but also mean a significant step forward with regards to safeguarding the work environment in the industry.”
Overall, there’s a palpable sense of relief.
“Today is a win for the workers in Bangladesh because the Accord saves lives,” said Nazma Akhter, executive director of Awaj Foundation and a member of Sommilito Garments Sramik Federation. “I hope all major brands sourcing from Bangladesh sign on to the new agreement.”
The international coverage of the new Accord is one that labor advocates have fought hard for. The Accord’s efforts have made the world’s third-largest exporter of apparel—after China and, more recently Vietnam—one of the safest to manufacture clothing. Others are less fortunate. In this past year alone, 28 workers died in an illegal textile facility in the northern Moroccan city of Tangier after they were trapped by heavy floods. The next month, 20 people died and 24 were hurt in a fire that tore through a four-story garment factory in the Al Qalyubia province north of Cairo. A few weeks after that, 25 people perished and 75 others suffered injuries following the implosion of a 10-story building that housed an unlicensed garment factory in Cairo’s Gesr El Suez district. Other fires have consumed facilities in India, South Africa, the Philippines and elsewhere.
Pakistan has faced its own share of industrial horrors, including a fire that killed more than 250 garment workers in 2012, mere months before the Rana Plaza disaster.
“In absence of efficient implementation of labor laws, the extension of the Accord to Pakistan can help in improving the labor-rights situation in Pakistan,” said Khalid Mahmood, director of the Labour Education Foundation. “Global brands have to share the responsibility of providing freedom of association, living wages, social protection and safe working conditions to garment workers across the supply chain. A legally binding Accord can be an effective tool for securing basic rights of workers but it can only be effective with meaningful participation from an organized labor force.”
Labor groups said that every brand that “places any value” on the lives of workers who sew its clothes will sign the new Accord and that it is “especially important” that the “reckless” companies that did not sign the original Accord put their pens to this one.
“Garment workers in Bangladesh used to die in the dozens and hundreds making T-shirts and sweaters for the world’s leading apparel brands,” said Scott Nova, executive director of the Worker Rights Consortium. “The Accord put an end to that horror. Provided enough brands sign, this new agreement will ensure it never returns.”
Source: sourcingjournal.com (25 Aug 2021)