2020.10.23
INDUSTRY NEWS - 2020.10.23
1、中國疫情緩和 全球製造業定單湧入 印度疫情礙生產 內地紡織業爆發式復甦
全球各國疫情反覆，海量定單湧入疫情趨緩的中國，生產「宅經濟」電器家品的廠商生意轉好。另一方面，印度紡織業產能受疫情拖累，大量定單流向中國，使內地紡織業迎爆發式復甦。
但業界認為應急定單紅利不會長期維持，將隨着各國恢復生產而消退。
綜合內媒報道，廣東、福建、浙江等沿海經濟大省的工廠，近期都陸續收到大量定單。
在廣東佛山設廠的粵華衞生潔具有限公司，專門出口浴室設備，今年年中因定單減少陷入經營困難，惟近月接到大批來自西班牙的定單，月產量從過往200套增至800套。公司趕緊擴大生產綫，要求工人取消休假，但仍未能滿足需求。
紡織廠國慶加班 工人津貼200元
佛山另一家音響出口企業的負責人也表示，他們公司在5月前幾乎沒有定單，但踏入6月以來，歐美定單就開始猛增。福建廈門有專門出口水龍頭的公司，近日因定單太多而不夠工人，公司規模由7,000人擴大至9,000人。
在紡織業方面，東莞捷德皮具公司8月起收到印度轉來的定單，客戶稱當地疫情嚴峻，擔心延誤生產，決定把定單轉交中國公司。浙江紹興一間紡織廠則罕見地在國慶長假開工，管理層提前要求工人取消休假，每人給予200元（人民幣，下同）加班津貼，成為熱話。
有報道還指出，作為紡織業超級大國的印度，本次外流的定單以毛巾、床單最多，據估計，國內廠商無法消化所有定單，部分甚至已排期至明年5月。這種定單過多、人手短缺的「煩惱」，同樣也發生在製造電腦、家電、手機等的廠商身上，帶動整個製造業走向復甦。
受惠「宅經濟」 電腦家電出口增
根據海關總署最新公布的出口數據，今年前三季，包括口罩在內的紡織品出口逾8,287億元，增長37.5%；機電產品出口逾7.46萬億元，增長3.2%，惟作為「宅經濟」商品代表的手提電腦、家庭電器，分別上升17.6%及17.3%，成為帶動增長的主力。
但是，業界普遍相信，應急定單帶來的紅利，不太可能長時間維持。有紡織業人士指出，此類定單轉移速度快，反映通貨性質更強，買家更看重價格、速度等因素；一旦印度國內產能恢復，中國生產成本優勢就會降低。事實上，紡織是勞動密集型行業，隨着中國勞動力成本上升，近年已有不少工廠遷到東南亞。
有學者分析，截至今年8月，中國最大貿易出口國仍是美國，遠高於東盟和歐盟。若美國疫情不受控、經濟進一步衰退，意味着當地人消費將會減少，對於中國製造行業而言並非好消息。除此之外，長遠是否留得住定單，更取決於外國消費者對中國產品的認識和體驗。
旺季需求激增 棉花期貨今年高
新冠肺炎疫情未止，重創印度紡織業，不少紡織定單轉移至中國，令中國棉花期貨價格飛漲，並創年內新高。
十一長假期間，紡織定單大幅增長帶動棉花期貨，節後價格較節前上漲近2,000元，升幅超過13%。
昨天（16日）棉花期貨主力2101合約價格一度高見14,675元，現報價14,560元。
十一長假後 棉花期貨飈13%
據內地傳媒報道，現貨市場也隨之火爆，下游定單火熱；上游棉花、化纖等大宗商品漲價，帶動紗綫等價格跟漲。
此外，9月底以來，A股紡織服裝板塊也猛漲。
秋季就是傳統外貿服裝的旺季，但隨着印度疫情嚴重，紡織行業停工停產交貨困難，不少歐美零售商將原本在印度生產的定單，轉移到中國，令內地對主要原材料棉花需求激增。部分接到印度「回流」定單的工廠預計，目前定單數量已排到明年5月。
紡織服裝A股板塊 呈強勢
分析人士認為，中國紡織業持續復甦，對棉花價格仍有一定支撑。
天風證券指出，紡織行業品牌終端正在持續恢復，冷冬利好今年冬裝銷售，板塊目前估值較低，但有望將在第四季度全面恢復。
不過，亦有業界人士質疑，近期棉花價格已升到脫離基本面的高度，遲早都要回歸本來軌道。
業界質疑棉花價 脫離基本面
據悉，目前客戶接受的價格應該在13,500元左右。
布瑞克資訊研究總監林國發指出，棉花市場前期低位震盪，主要因棉花價格持續低迷嚴重影響種植，本年度美國、印度棉花產量下降，導致全球棉花產量下降，而低價及產量下降，又限制棉花價格下跌空間。
隨着節後服裝定單爆發性增加，改變原來供需變化，盤面已經突破性上漲，後市維持找低點做好倉。
填補海外產業鏈短缺 中國出口續俏
中國出口數據連續6個月錄得增長，內地證券行分析，伴隨部分海外地區出現第二波疫情，以及全球經濟逐漸復甦，美國尚未完全恢復生產、印度等國疫情加劇，導致原有的定單外溢，預料中國將繼續扮演彌補全球產業鏈缺口的角色，在汽車、家具等商品方面將尤為顯著。
防疫物資輸出 歐美市場佔4成
國泰君安證券報告稱，得益於出色的疫情防控能力，中國防疫物資供應全球，推動出口超預期。未來非防疫需求繼續提升，防疫需求總體加速，出口將持續上行。
防疫物資對美國出口維持高位、對印度大幅回升，其他國家則逐漸回落。中國防疫物資主要向歐美出口，共計佔比41%；向東南亞、日韓出口佔比約為11%，向印度、巴西出口約為3%。因此，中國防疫物資出口主要受到歐美發達國家的疫情影響。
汽車家具機電 3原因強勁復甦
截至2020年8月，中國對美國防疫物資出口增速仍然維持在較高水平，對印度大幅回升，這與8月以來各國疫情發展整體脗合。
中國彌補全球產業鏈缺口效應仍在延續，汽車、船舶、玩具等出口快速提升，中國主要在家具、娛樂、機電及高端設備製造產品等方面恢復強勁。
一是因為疫情導致的家庭辦公和綫上辦公的需求大幅上升；二是因為主要發達國家財政刺激方案的強收入效應，提高了居民的購買力；三是因為疫情切斷了部分全球分工產品的供應鏈，中國企業開始彌補這些產業鏈的缺口。
資料來源：香港經濟日報 (2020年10月17日)
2、【中國經濟】紡織業續復甦 原料需求急增每日漲價
印度受新冠肺炎疫情影響，多地工廠無法如常開工，導致大量紡織訂單流入中國。長三角地區、河北等地工廠在訂單暴增下，均取消員工休假及擴大生產線。紡織品原材料也價格應聲上漲，截至周三（21日），「中國棉花價格指數」為每噸14922元（人民幣，下同），較上月均價漲2126元，漲幅近16%。
內媒記者到長三角紡織重鎮浙江紹興的柯橋區了解，當地廠商森如紡織有限公司企業的負責人透露，自本月初起，外貿訂單開始增加，客戶每天都追加訂單，「有歐美的，也有日韓的......現在出口訂單已經恢復到了往年的70%」。他指原材料價格也在每天漲，甚至日漲數次，下午價格經已與上午不同。另外「雙11」購物節將至，國內訂單也急增，「今年內貿和外貿訂單撞在一起了，我們產能卻沒法緊急增加，最近把去年、前年的庫存都賣出去了」。
河北高陽榮天紡織有限公司的負責人亦表示，他公司最近接到200萬條毛巾外貿訂單，而公司長期以國內供應為主，上次接到印度的訂單已是近5年前的事。他形容做廠20年，沒有遇過生意這樣火爆的情況。
報道指，在這情況下，原材料價格持續上漲，例如FDY「全拉伸絲」和DTY「拉伸變形絲」的價格，在疫情最嚴重時曾降到了每公斤5至6元，現在又漲到每公斤7至8元；氨綸的價格往年波動也就在1%到2%，現在價格漲幅已經突破10%，快接近20%。至於棉花、滌綸、粘膠等原料亦目漲。據阿里巴巴國際站數據顯示，服裝行業訂單數按年增長逾200%，面料及紡織原材料訂單數亦增長逾100%。
內地證券行指出，進入第三季度，中國紡織產業鏈景氣度逐漸恢復，雖然近期紡織需求的大幅增長存在「冷冬預期」、「東南亞訂單轉移」、「傳統旺季」等短期因素，但是後疫情時代的海外需求復甦，將為紡織服裝產業鏈景氣度提供持續性。紡織原材料價格目前仍處歷史底部水平，價格上行潛在空間較大。
資料來源：香港經濟日報 (2020年10月21日)
3、國際紡聯年會第二天，中國紡織率先復蘇經驗引全球同業高度關注
繼10月20日探討兩個議題後，10月21日，2020國際紡聯年會進入第二天，來自世界各國各地區的行業領袖、專家和學者，圍繞“纖維(人造纖維+棉花)”、“可持續性與迴圈經濟”、“SLCP-社會勞工整合專案”、“中國紡織工業的未來”四大議題進行了深入交流和討論。
中國紡織工業聯合會會長孫瑞哲，原會長王天凱，副會長徐迎新、端小平、楊兆華、孫淮濱，以及中國紡聯各部門，各專業協會的負責人在中國北京分會場參加了會議。
中國紡織緣何能從疫情影響中率先復蘇
新冠疫情的爆發，對全球紡織服裝產業供需兩端造成了嚴重衝擊，中國紡織工業也深受疫情影響，但在政府、行業、企業的共同努力下率先復蘇，保障了產品供給，引起世界紡織關注。為讓全球同行瞭解中國紡織工業現狀及未來發展，會議設置了“中國紡織工業的未來”議題，邀請中國紡織工業聯合會會長孫瑞哲從疫情之下紡織服裝行業如何發展、變局下中國紡織服裝產業的新變化等幾個角度展望中國紡織工業的未來。
同世界紡織工業一樣，疫情給中國紡織工業也帶來了重大影響，但中國紡織工業表現出了強大的韌性與活力。1-9月行業總體表現出五大特點：生產保持穩步恢復、內需市場持續復蘇、行業出口加快增長、行業投資信心仍然低迷、運行質效有所改善。
此外，在抗擊新冠疫情方面，中國紡織工業為保障世界疫情防控作出了重要貢獻。資料統計，3月15日-9月6日，中國口罩出口數量達十億隻，防護服出口數量達十億件，出口國家和地區數量超200個。分國家來看，1-7月，美國自中國進口口罩(十億美元)，占美國從全球市場進口份額的87.3%；1-8月，日本自中國進口口罩(十億日元)，占日本從全球市場進口份額的92.0%；1-6月，歐盟自中國進口口罩(十億歐元)，占歐盟從全球市場進口份額的92.0%。
對於中國紡織工業如何率先從疫情影響中復蘇，孫瑞哲向與會代表分享了幾點經驗：一是中國紡織工業從新中國成立開始就建立了縱向的產業鏈，這為今後的發展奠定了穩定的基礎；二是上世紀70年代末，中國開始向世界開放，中國紡織工業充分利用了國際化的機會，很快將產業做大；三是進入新世紀後，中國加入WTO，中國紡織工業抓住新的機會，為世界市場提供了更好的產品和服務，而且在世界金融危機期間，通過中國政府支持、各行業努力，成為較早從金融危機中走出來的國家；四是中國是擁抱數位化經濟較早的國家之一，擁有線上線下融合發展的優勢；五是中國“一帶一路”倡議的實施，讓中國紡織工業拓展到更廣泛的市場。
孫瑞哲分析，疫情影響之下，紡織服裝產業需要適應一個不同的世界。因為疫情使得世界經濟陷入同步性衰退；全球資源加速解構與重組，產業鏈合作承壓；生產、生活方式發生改變，推動了數位經濟加速延展與下沉；使得綠色生產和生活方式加快形成，“綠色復蘇”、“綠色刺激”成為全球許多國家經濟重啟的重要選擇。
在這樣的變局下，孫瑞哲總結了中國紡織服裝產業的4個新變化：
一是“資料+製造”，打造更具柔性的新供給。資料已全面融入產業生產體系與運營體系，成為貫穿整個產業系統最活躍的要素，產業供應鏈柔性顯著增強。
二是“內容+產品”，打造更具粘性的新消費。內容電商正在深度植入產品行銷體系，交互與有趣成為培養客群的重要節點。短視頻、直播等內容電商通過強交互的消費場景，給予消費者精准化、沉浸式的產品服務。以文化、IP對產品進行內容賦能，提升產品附加值，營造新客群。
三是“產業集群+新經濟”，打造協同創新的新生態。產業集群正成為垂直電商、跨境電商等新經濟業態的重要孵化生態。新經濟的快速發展成為激發集群資源活力的重要方式。
四是“國內市場+國際市場”，打造相互促進的新迴圈。中國紡織工業有大規模內需市場作為依託，同時也是中國建立開放型經濟的典型代表。
孫瑞哲指出，中國即將進入“十四五”時期，紡織工業需要在建設人類命運共同體的高度下，強化全球合作，尋找行業在社會經濟發展中的新定位：國民經濟與社會發展的支柱產業、解決民生與美化生活的基礎產業、國際合作與融合發展的優勢產業。未來，中國紡織將是責任發展、創新發展、協同發展、集約化發展的行業。
在小組討論環節，主持人代表與會人員對孫瑞哲進行了現場採訪。
問：當前全世界尤其是發展中國家生產成本都在增加，在這種情況下，中國如何繼續保持自己的競爭力？
孫瑞哲：成本是紡織製造環節中一個非常重要的因素。成本主要包括原材料成本、物流成本、能源成本和勞動力成本。
如果看一下上下游，我們就會發現，上游勞動力成本其實並不是那麼重要，但是如果我們從下游來看，勞動力成本就占比較大的份額了。幸運的是，中國有200多個產業集群，這些集群將相關企業聚集在一起，形成了一個產業鏈，不僅提高了效率，還可以減少物流成本。
當前，我們比較關注的是電、能源等方面的成本，還有地緣政治方面的因素。地緣政治可能會帶來額外的成本，比如關稅，這是非常重要的。如何應對成本問題？我認為必須要遵循趨勢。在當今，我們必須尊重老百姓過上更好的生活的願望，所以我們要給他們更高的工資，給他們更好的機會，而不能只是想著控制勞動力成本。我們需要做的就是必須思考一下如何讓這個行業更加高效，所以資訊技術、人工智慧就變得更加重要。這些新技術的應用不僅減少了對勞動力需求，同時成本也可以得到控制。
問：人民幣升值對中國紡織品出口是不利的，中國紡織如何保持自己的優勢？
孫瑞哲：人民幣升值對行業來講，肯定會帶來一些波動。剛才提到成本可能會受到眾多因素的影響，所以目前有兩個非常重要的額外成本是大家比較關注的，一是額外的關稅，這是因為國際政策的變化而引起的，也就是地緣政治因素而引起的；二是如何控制電、能源方面的成本。如果沒有大的波動，其他方面的成本是可控的。
問：中國的人造纖維產能是否過剩？
孫瑞哲：說人造纖維產能過剩是個悖論。隨著社會的發展，人們對纖維的需求是不斷增加的，比如今年疫情期間，紡織品在口罩、防護服等領域有了新的應用。此外，在土工布、車輛、大飛機等領域對產業用紡織品有極大的需求，這就意味著對纖維有額外的需求。如果只是為了滿足人們的服裝需求，那麼當前人造纖維的產能是足夠了，但是展望未來，纖維還有其他以及未知領域的應用，這樣看來也許產能還可以再翻倍，因為世界上的很多事情，都可以由紡織品來做，前景非常廣泛。
問：中國紡織生產是否會繼續加大向越南轉移的力度？
孫瑞哲：我們現在正密切關注越南和歐盟的自貿協定，越南已經成為中國企業的第一投資目的地。中國紡織目前在越南的投資，包括纖維、紡紗、染整等，是垂直產業鏈的投資。未來，隨著發展，中國紡織企業在海外投資方面也會做一些調整，會更關注政策支持較好的國家，去這些國家投資。依照目前形勢看，中國紡織對越南的投資還會繼續。
問：當前貿易環境是否加速了中國的海外投資，在海外其他國家和地區比如拉丁美洲是否有更多的海外投資？
孫瑞哲：當前中美貿易衝突是中國企業的比較擔心的問題，我們正在考慮如何讓中國紡織企業實現可持續發展。可持續發展除了關注環境，也關注如何保持中國紡織服裝在國際市場的份額，因此我們不僅出口紡織品，同時還會把產能轉移到世界各地。目前海外投資的首選地是越南，其次是非洲。拉丁美洲也有很多機會，也希望加強對拉丁美洲的瞭解。
纖維的可持續發展
來自賽得利的Sharon Chong介紹了賽得利企業加速創新、實現規模迴圈的經驗。近年來，賽得利進行了資源整合，大大提升了企業的產品品質，拓展了生產規模，企業產業鏈穩定性也進一步提高，每一款纖維實現了可追溯性。賽得利在可持續發展中始終按照國際法規要求自己，所定標準始終高於行業標準，還通過各種平臺與上下游客戶共同探討可持續發展。賽得利強調，企業未來無論怎樣發展，都會遵循一個原則：對環境有利。
來自印度信實工業公司的R.D. Udeshi對疫情對滌綸行業的影響、再迴圈纖維等情況進行了介紹。2020年全球經濟出現了進一步下降，6月初，公司預計營業額會出現30%以上的下滑，但9月份的實際下滑比率是16%。這可能是因為自6月以來，公司又開始接到新訂單的緣故。2020年全球滌綸行業預計會恢復到2018年的水準，和2019年相比，會有3%-4%的下滑，也就是說對滌綸的需求會出現減少，但生產商們不必悲觀，這個下降僅是臨時的，未來行業肯定會復蘇的。印度已經在考慮把可再生纖維納入到可持續的時尚領域，零污染、零排放正在成為行業新的追求。
來自新加坡伍德麥肯茲國際能源宏觀研究的Alexei Sinitsa介紹，新冠疫情導致需求大大降低，給包括纖維行業在內的整個行業帶來較大衝擊，預計將花費10年才能恢復到疫情前水準，但從另一個角度講需求不足也讓當前的纖維原材料供應非常充足，能夠滿足可能增加的生產需求。對於纖維的可持續發展，Alexei Sinitsa認為可使用生物可降解可再生材料、加大回收力度、減少污染排放。他預測未來十年，全球可能出現“瓶子戰”，現在需要進一步思考包裝材料回收的問題。
印度棉花協會副主席Vinay Kotak對印度棉花協會進行了介紹，並對行業未來發展進行了展望。印度是全球第二大棉花生產和消費國家，也是第三大棉花出口商，由於9月15日受到大雨的影響，今年的棉花收成可能會受到非常大的影響。由於受疫情等因素影響，協會預計到2021年10月棉花生產量才有望完全恢復到疫情前水準。為了改變棉花品質不好、受污染等問題，印度政府推出了系列生產優質棉花的舉措，紡織部計畫在2025年推出新的政策理念，這個政策有助於提升整個行業的現代化、可持續發展以及包容性，能夠支持紡織、服裝行業以及產業用紡織品行業的發展。
來自埃及棉花協會的Khaled Schuman介紹了埃及棉花應對新冠疫情挑戰的經驗。新冠疫情導致埃及的紡織訂單減少30%，企業都在努力提高自身研發能力、開拓電商管道、研發醫療產品等措施來應對挑戰。此外，埃及政府也非常重視棉花的生產，目前正在通過引進先進技術裝備提升棉花生產效率、改善產品品質、減少污染，同時通過棉包追溯等認證專案實現埃及棉花的可持續發展。
美國棉花公司的Mark Messura介紹了滿足紡織製造商需求，棉花在世界供應鏈中的創新與可持續發展的相關情況。棉花也有很多創新，過去棉花公司不斷推出了一些新技術，尤其是是適用於產品設計和開發方面的創新正在變得越來越重要。比如電子追蹤、類比零售等等，這些技術都有一段時間了，但最有意思和創新的技術，實際上還是關於產品設計軟體方面的，尤其是使用3D設計軟體來創立和設計服裝。為什麼人們開始更多的運用數位化的方式進行採購設計呢？因為這種做法能夠更快的實現人們的想法，可以讓產品更快的上市，可以控制產品成本，能夠為各種不同的消費群體和市場進行量身製造產品，而且更加符合可持續發展的趨勢。
全球聚焦可持續性與迴圈經濟
香港紡織服裝研究協會CEO葛儀文介紹了新迴圈經濟和新3R(reduce,reuse,recycle)原則的可持續性。經過十幾年的發展，消費者對氣候變化越來越關注，消費方式也發生很大變化，更加關注消費產品的環境友好性，需要紡織服裝從業者學習分析消費者的消費變化。今年因為疫情，消費者開始對口罩、防護服產生興趣，意味著消費者對紡織品要求有更多的功能。他提出現在行業需要思考到底要用什麼材料才能使環境更加可持續；要思考我們從事的事業不僅要講利潤，更要講是否對環境友好；要更關注新材料的發明，以便給人們更高價值的消費。
德國麥肯錫Karl-Hendrik Magnus介紹了時尚工業如何快速行動減少溫室氣體排放。研究顯示，2018年法國、德國、英國等國家的時尚行業的溫室氣體排放可以占到全球的4%，這是一個比較大的資料，所以要考慮從纖維到成衣的整個鏈條上考慮，究竟如何才能減少溫室氣體排放。研究表明，61%的排放來自纖維生產，21%和消費者的消費行為有關，大約18%來自品牌生產商。從投資者的角度來看是一個好消息，因為投資者願意採取一些減排措施，因為這些措施不僅可以實現減排的目標，而且還能夠降低企業的生產成本。
中國紡織資訊中心副主任閻岩介紹了中國紡織服裝行業打造時尚迴圈的做法。她指出，迴圈經濟是今後很長時間內的主題，歐洲許多國家近年來都提到了發展迴圈經濟，中國政府也非常支持發展迴圈經濟，早在2005年就提出了迴圈經濟發展戰略。中國紡織發展迴圈經濟的必要性非常大，一是因為中國紡織服裝有較大的規模，發展會遇到資源的約束，另一方面，中國擁有巨大的消費市場，中國紡織服裝的迴圈時尚將對世界產生巨大變化。
閻岩介紹，疫情讓人們開始深度思考人與自然的關係。中國紡織服裝行業正在加快構建綠色迴圈低碳產業體系，立足於全球價值鏈推動行業的轉型升級，以實現更負責任、更具韌性的產業未來發展。我們系統地梳理了中國紡織服裝行業自2005年至今的迴圈實踐和成果，並基於國際實踐和趨勢，對中國產業未來的機遇進行了詳細闡述和展望，相信能為產業探索迴圈發展之道提供有益的參考。
SLCP-社會勞工整合專案受到關注
來自荷蘭SLCP(社會勞工整合專案)的Janet Mensink介紹了SLCP成立的意義和運轉方式。SLCP專案的目標是為社會勞工資料收集創建一個整合評估框架，消除審核疲勞。通過取代現有的專有評估工具，避免重複並減少社會勞工審核的數量。使以前被用於合規性審核的資源重新用於改善社會勞工工作條件，同時增加社會勞工資料的可比性。她介紹，SLCP目前已經在30多個國家使用。
印度Abhishek Bansal介紹，從行業經驗來看，許多大中型企業每年要進行8-10次審計，會讓企業出現審計疲勞，SLCP整合項目可以讓整個行業通過一個統一的驗證流程，減少審計的重複性，可以幫助企業將節約的精力更好地用於企業的產品製造和技術開發方面。推行這個專案的目的有兩個，一是減少審計疲勞，二是真正改善行業的社會勞工情況。SLCP還具有三個層級的做法，對處於不同階段的企業都有好處，即合規、成熟度、領先性。
美國GAP公司的Darren Chastain介紹了SLCP對品牌的重要性。Darren Chastain介紹GAP在1969年成立時的理念非常簡單，就是能夠讓消費者找到一條非常舒適的牛仔褲，現在公司已經有了GAP、PUBLIC許多耳熟能詳的品牌。公司從2015年成為了SLCP的簽約方，為什麼SLCP對企業如此重要呢？簡單來說就是，通過這個項目可以讓企業降低審計的疲勞和過分的重複，把非常寶貴的時間放在其他方面，比如做一些研發和創新。
資料來源：http://info.texnet.com.cn (2020年10月23日)
4、【大灣商機】香港設計業在「十四五規劃」下的重要角色
香港是亞洲商貿樞紐，也是中國對外的出口，也是亞洲時尚都會及設計樞紐。在國家的「雙循環」（即加快形成以國內大循環為主體、國內國際雙迴圈相互促進）中的「外循環」上，香港不僅以藉著參加更多國際經貿組織，協助國家在國際貿易上的發展，為國家開通更多新通道，也可以藉著也參與刺激民眾消費意欲及需求。
根據 2020 年統計處的《香港的文化及創意產業》專題文章，2018 年文化及創意產業的增加價值為港幣 1,178 億元，佔本地生產總值（GDP）4.4%，行業就業人數為 217, 280人，佔香港總體 5.6%。當中有 6,660 間設計公司共約 18,000 名從業員，佔文化及創意業 8.1%。
香港設計服務公司主要從事多媒體、視覺和平面設計（佔 37%）以及室內和家具設計（36%）等兩大領域，其後是工業設計領域（佔 13%），產業增值約港幣 43 億元。至於廣告界別的增加價值為 98 億元，就業人數為 19,370 人，佔文化及創意產業 8.9%。
香港的文創產品也具實力，在 2018 年出口為港幣 6,180 億元，佔整體出口總額 4.9%；其中視聽及互動媒體貨品佔 2018 年文創出口總額的 71.5%。其次為表演藝術及節慶貨品（13.3%）、 視覺藝術及設計貨 品（11.7%）及古董及工藝品（1.9%）等。
筆者認為，香港的廣告、設計、品牌、製作相關人才，能夠成功為香港製造或外國製造的商品，透過廣告、商演、品牌交叉合作等，助企業在境內外建立品牌知名度，增加消費者的購買產品及品牌的意欲，營造產品的需求，增加消費者的購買意欲。現時，大部分香港設計師都有輸出服務，當中中國內地是本港設計服務最大的出口市場之一，愈來愈受香港設計師重視。
不少內地企業有採用香港設計公司的服務，為品牌進行設計及包裝。香港的設計師既能迎合國際及亞州市場口味，也能兼顧中國傳統和設計元素，滿足市場對優質創意服務的需求，能夠增加品牌在國內外市場競爭力。香港的輕工業產品如玩具、電子產品及成衣等，在國際市場大受歡迎。
其實，香港公司一直參與海外市場，具有不少海外聯繫，能助內地企業開拓原創設計（ODM）或原創品牌（OBM）業務。對於有擴大內銷，促進消費需要的內地製造業廠家，可引進香港廣告、設計和品牌相關人才，去增加品牌的「外國味道」之餘，並同時增加品牌國際化、打造更高層次知名度，吸引更多國內外客戶的消費。
據 CEPA，香港「專業設計服務」可以獨資形式在內地提供專業設計服務，在隨後的補充協議，香港專業設計公司獲國民待遇，只有印章刻製服務在負面清單上，香港的設計業要進入內地市場並不是困難的事，加上深港設計創意產業園「二元橋・深圳前海」已於去年啓動，是粵港澳大灣區設計師及企業的交流平台，有望為香港設計師及相關服務提供者締造新機遇。筆者相信文創設計等專業服務能夠代表香港在國家「十四五」規劃及「雙循環」上扮演的重要角色，大家要一同把握機遇。
資料來源：香港經濟日報 (2020年10月19日)
5、8月出口貨量跌1.2% 輸美挫13.4% 分析師料9至12月仍負增長 聖誕亦難升
本港今年8月商品整體出口貨量按年下跌1.2%，商品整體出口價格則按年下跌0.9%（見表）。受經濟及新冠肺炎疫情不穩定影響，分析師預計，今年9至12月的出口仍維持負增長，即使聖誕旺季將至亦難有升幅。業界亦料，今年聖誕定單按年跌至少5成。
進口方面，8月份商品整體進口貨量按年下跌4.5%，進口價格則按年下跌1.3%。至於今年首8月與去年同期比較，香港的商品整體出口貨量及進口貨量分別下跌5.0%及7.2%，商品整體出口價格及進口價格均下跌0.8%。
8月香港輸往美國的整體出口貨量，按年下跌13.4%，跌幅僅次於日本（↓16.8%），而輸往中國內地（↓0.9%）亦下跌。另一方面，輸往台灣（↑3.5%）及印度（↑17.5%）的整體出口貨量則上升。
商會：會員接聖誕單 反應欠佳
與此同時，輸往所有主要目的地的整體出口價格均下跌，包括日本（↓2.7%）、印度（↓2.0%）、台灣（↓1.5%）、美國（↓0.9%）及內地（↓0.3%）。
上海商業銀行研究部主管林俊泓表示，香港主要為轉口貿易，當中以大多是電子產品，與手機有關，但新型號手機銷情一般，影響出口貨量。至於出口價格下跌則與經濟不明朗下，產品偏向平價貨及簡單儀器有關。
香港中華出入口商會榮譽會長莊成鑫透露，8月出口仍未見好轉，有會員反映被暫緩出貨，亦有買家取消定單；不少會員正在接聖誕定單，但反應不佳，因不少買家擔心疫情會於第四季進一步爆發。
至於輸往美國的整體出口貨量維持雙位數字跌幅，莊表示，中美貿易局勢緊張，香港難免牽涉其中，不少會員仍有憂慮，正逐步減少出口美國，轉為輸往亞洲地區。
資料來源：香港經濟日報 (2020年10月20日)
6、UNIQLO疫境策略 開發新品不減舖 積極發展網上至綫下 網店會員逾百萬
疫情下頗受打擊的行業，除了要大裁員的航空業，零售業也首當其衝，主攻休閒服飾的UNIQLO也不能倖免。其大中華區行政總裁潘寧接受專訪時強調：「盡量保持店舖的營業，店舖是為消費者而存在。」他更相信，零售業要學習與新冠肺炎共存。
UNIQLO為日本零售企業迅銷有限公司旗下的品牌，也是集團內比較國際化的品牌之一。該集團2020財年（截至8月31日止）的綜合收益，約為190.6億美元（約1,477億港元）。
15年前，UNIQLO進軍香港市場，可算與香港零售業經歷沙士後的「好時代」。潘寧坦言，自去年社會運動開始，香港市場的消費情緒開始受影響，今年疫情更令遊客消失，港人也減少出外及消費。
對港市場樂觀 須建消費信心
走在街上，不難遇到熟悉的零售店已關門，但UNIQLO仍然一店也未有減，品牌現時在港澳擁32間店。潘寧解釋，香港作為國際城市，對東南亞甚至歐美都有影響力，品牌在香港的生存不應只看疫情的打擊，要看更長久的發展。「長遠而言，我們對香港市場持樂觀態度。」他更強調，「關店容易開店難」，消費者的信心需要一步步建立。
他指出，「在艱難的日子，我們也照常營業，就算香港客人只是買很少東西，如一件內衣或家居服，也會感到開心滿足，對我們有信心。令客人開心，也是我們的責任。如果街上很多店也關了，大家走在街上會感到淒涼，可能覺得明天沒有意義。當然，不同品牌有自己的困難、決定。」
疫情快滿一年，品牌反而更積極尋找方法與疫情共存。潘寧表示，在疫情初期，先要找方法保護員工安全，口罩、消毒液不能缺；同時教育員工，在工作及私人時間，也要保持個人及環境衞生。接下來，就是找尋持續發展的共存方法。他指，疫情下很多人在家避疫及工作，就算出外也多做運動或到郊區唞唞氣。品牌加大力度開發及推出更多家居服、運動服，用料注重舒適、快乾、防曬功能。「冬天快到，HEATTECH保暖內、外衣都有需求。」
自身努力外，也要有環境的配合。潘寧指香港有不少「良心業主」，亦有助其分店可持續經營。但香港始終地少人多，店舖不能無限擴充。近期品牌積極發展網上至綫下的生意，其網絡旗艦店已有逾百萬會員。客人在網購後可到實體店取貨，可即時穿上。「香港地方細很方便，不難找到分店在工作或家居附近。」
尋求與疫共存 幸遇良心業主
現時網店的選擇已比實體店多，尤其在呎碼上有更多選擇。「未來會投入更多發展網店，它不但有助銷售，更是很好的宣傳渠道。」更重要的是，透過網銷及消費者的網絡足迹，結集得來的大數據，令品牌更易了解消費者的喜惡。「利用數據做分析是未來的趨勢，亦在合規情況下，探討如何運用人工智能。」
資料來源：香港經濟日報 (2020年10月22日)
7、Fast Retailing CEO Eyes 3,000 Stores in China
Fast Retailing Co., the parent of Uniqlo, GU and apparel brands such as J Brand and Theory, beat its own full-year estimates, posting 90.3 billion Japanese yen ($860 million) in net profit, which represents a 44.4 percent year-over-year drop in the 12 months ended August, indicating that the retail giant is on the road to recovery.
In a Nutshell: While operating profit for the year ended August fell 42 percent to 149.3 billion yen ($1.42 billion) and revenue declined 12 percent, Fast Retailing’s projections for 2021 represent a return to pre-pandemic levels. The company projects a record net profit of 165 billion yen ($1.57 billion) for the current business year through August 2021, an 82.6 percent surge from the previous year, as sales are forecast to rise 9.5 percent to 2.2 trillion yen ($20.9 billion).
More important, the Uniqlo owner sees positive expansion in the wake of the scenario that is playing out. Fast Retailing had 767 stores in mainland China as of August, roughly the same number of stores as Japan. But given its growth potential, Tadashi Yanai, chairman and CEO of Fast Retailing Co., says it’s possible to aim for 3,000 stores in China.
Inventory assets in total increased by 7 billion yen ($66.5 million) to 417.5 billion yen ($3.96 billion), with Uniqlo Japan up 2.3 billion yen ($21.8 million) amid an excess of spring/summer inventory. The company says tightly managing fall/winter order flow and expects core items from spring to normalize over that season.
Uniqlo International’s inventory levels have increased by 4.1 billion yen ($38.9 million), largely since Greater China and South Korea have “slightly excessive” spring inventory that is expected to normalize over the fall/winter season. Summer inventory is already at acceptable levels in the markets. However, South Asia, Southeast Asia, Oceania, Europe and North America have more excessive spring/summer inventory, but mainly core items that are expected to normalize by the second half of 2021.
Capital expenditure declined by 2.4 billion yen ($22.8 million) year over year in fiscal 2020 to 82.7 billion yen ($785.1 million). That figure can be broken down into 17.8 billion ($169 million) yen for Uniqlo Japan, 23.5 billion yen ($223.1 million) for Uniqlo International, 8.5 billion yen ($80.7 million) for low-cost fashion chain GU, 2.4 billion yen ($22.8 million) for Global Brands, and 30.4 billion yen ($288.7 million) for IT systems and warehousing.
Fast Retailing Co. increased its investment in IT system and warehousing as part of its companywide Ariake Project, which furthers its digital goals transformation and eliminates waste in production, transportation, and sales. The company says as it invested more heavily in global flagship stores and large-format stores at Uniqlo Japan, the overall capital expenditure figure declined slightly year-on-year due to a reduction in new stores openings primarily at Uniqlo International.
Fast Retailing continued to enter new markets over the period with the first Uniqlo store opening in Milan in September of last year, the first store opening in New Delhi, India in October 2019 and the first store opening in Ho Chi Minh City in December.
Cash and cash equivalents as of Aug. 31, increased by 7 billion yen ($66.5 million) from the end of the preceding fiscal year, to 1.1 trillion yen ($10.4 billion).
The company also highlighted that by the end of 2020, it plans to reduce the use of plastic in shopping bags and product packaging by 85 percent (approximately 7,800 tons) by reducing the amount of plastic used and switching to environmentally friendly materials such as recycled paper.
Additionally, Fast Retailing has donated approximately 15 million masks to medical facilities around the world that are battling the coronavirus pandemic, and nearly 1.2 million isolation gowns to healthcare organizations in Japan.
The company also has donated approximately around 520,000 items of Uniqlo clothing (as of the end of July), including Airism and Heattech products and down jackets, to organizations supporting vulnerable members of society and medical institutions.
Net Sales: Consolidated revenue totaled 2 trillion yen ($19.08 billion), a 12.3 percent year-over-year decline from last year.
Fast Retailing Co. broke out its official earnings report for the full year and not the fourth quarter, but it indicated that same-store sales at Uniqlo Japan rebounded by a 20.2 percent year-on-year in the quarter after reopening its 311 closed stores. The company attributed the growth to strong sales of core summer ranges, products designed to satisfy stay-at-home demand, and Airism face masks.
Uniqlo Japan reported a decline in revenue in fiscal 2020, with revenue dipping 7.6 percent to 806.8 billion yen ($7.7 billion). Meanwhile, fiscal 2020 same-store sales (including e-commerce) declined 6.8 percent year-on-year.
Meanwhile, Uniqlo Japan’s e-commerce sales increased 29.3 percent year-on-year in fiscal 2020 to 107.6 billion yen ($1.02 billion), raising the proportion of online sales to total revenue from 9.5 percent to 13.3 percent.
Uniqlo International, which is Fast Retailing’s largest segment, recorded significant declines in revenue for the year, with revenue falling to 17.7 percent to 843.9 billion yen ($8.01 billion). However, e-commerce sales increased by roughly 20 percent year over year as our online operations continue to expand favorably in all markets.
The GU segment recorded an increase in revenue, with revenue increasing 3.1 percent year over year to 246.0 billion yen ($2.3 billion).
Net Earnings: Across the board, Fast Retailing Co. posted a 90.3 billion yen ($860 million) net profit on a 44.4 percent drop, with operating profit declining 42 percent to 149.3 billion ($1.42 billion).
Uniqlo Japan reported a rise in profit in fiscal 2020, with operating profit expanding 2.2 percent to 104.6 billion yen ($992.8 million). Uniqlo International recorded another big decline in the year, as operating profit contracted 63.8 percent to 50.2 billion yen ($476.5 million). GU saw operating profit take a dive as well, totaling 21.8 billion yen ($206.9 million), a 22.5 percent year-over-year decline).
CEO’s Take: “The pandemic is a global crisis, but for us, it has become a turning point,” Yanai said at a press briefing. “This may finally be the turning point when we move from the age of the West to the age of Asia. Our hope is to become the world’s No. 1 apparel brand.”
Source: www.sourcingjournal.com (16 Oct 2020)
8、How a Smaller Gap Inc. Means Bigger Profits
Gap Inc.’s Power Plan 2023, detailed Thursday at a virtual investor day presentation, will streamline the company as it moves from a fixed to a variable expense structure so it can focus on customer-facing opportunities for growth.
Sonia Syngal, who became Gap Inc. CEO in March, just before the coronavirus shutdown began, laid out the initiative with her team.
“We emerged with clarity and conviction with what our path forward looks like,” Syngal said. “Our North Star is that we grow purpose-led billion-dollar brands that shape people’s way of life.”
The apparel giant plans to abandon mall-based real estate, Syngal said, and that Gap Inc. customers are reallocating their spending from travel and entertainment to casual apparel and home.
“The retail disruption combined with our unique direct-to-consumer vertical omni model at scale and with speed allows us to aggressively take market share. We believe this is a once in a lifetime opportunity,” Syngal said.
Syngal also touched upon the company’s investments in technology and digital, which give it access to the data and decision-making that are crucial in a competitive environment.
“We know how she’s shopping, the way she’s dressing, what matters most to her and her family and how she expresses herself through her style,” the CEO said.
Gap’s corporate portfolio has a reach of about 80 percent of the U.S. apparel market, with 170 million known customers. It’s $16 billion in annual volume in 2019 makes the multibranded firm the “largest apparel retail company in America,” she said. “Gap Inc. is number two in the U.S. apparel market for e-commerce sales.”
The company has had strong and consistent operating cash flow, with a five-year average of about $1.5 billion, Katrina O’Connell, chief financial officer, said. “Our path forward is consistent sales growth, operating margin expansion, a more resilient and flexible business and an improved capital allocation.”
The problem in the past has been inconsistent execution, she noted. The company is looking to reallocate some of its fixed expenses and rent into demand-generation online. The reallocation includes reduction of headcount and the lowering of store expenses. The company is also taking a hard look at the future of work, and what that might mean post Covid-19. Savings would be redeployed to invest in marketing, loyalty, technology and fulfillment, the CFO explained.
Overall, the company plans for its North American store fleet to shrink by 30 percent, reflecting a smaller store base for its Gap and Banana Republic brands, which the company noted when it reported second-quarter results in August. From 2019 through 2023, a total of 350 Gap and Banana Republic stores will have been closed.
At Thursday’s presentation, the CFO said 60 percent of those stores, or 200 total doors, will close this year, with another 75 stores in 2021, bringing the total number to 75 percent of its target range. The balance of the store closures for both brands will be completed by the end of fiscal year 2023. At that point, 80 percent of the revenue of Gap and Banana Republic in 2023 will be from online and off-mall locations. Some of the leases will expire next year, and the company will spend about $210 million in one-time cash exit costs to buyout some lease locations. The company also expects to get a benefit of $45 million annually once it completes rent renegotiations with landlords.
O’Connell also addressed the company’s plans for a partial shift in its European business from company-owned to a franchise operation by 2021. The “asset-light” partnership model would reduce the company’s capital needs and exposure to volatility in the marketplace, she said.
“We believe the company can generate operating cash flow at roughly 10 percent of sale,” she said, adding that the store closures in North America alone would generate a $100 million EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) benefit. The company also expects sales growth in the low-to-mid-single digits on an annual basis.
On the operations side, chief operating officer Shawn Curran told investors that the company sources in 30 countries, working with 330 mills and 620 factories. The company has been optimizing its inventory and margins through a combination of flexibility and speed, and continues with digitalization improvements to reduce costs and increase speed with its vendor base. Curran said the company’s scaled automation gives it a “competitive advantages with the e-commerce shift,” leveraging its store network for local delivery and pickup.
He did note that the company also postponed commitments for holiday orders until it got a read on what customers wanted, and once the team got that read, “we moved very quickly,” leveraging our factory and logistics partners to meet demand. The late decision has the advantage of decreasing the chance of putting into production a merchandise miss, but the downside is that the company had to pivot to air shipping the goods to get them delivered on time.
Brand leaders also chimed in on their strategies for the company’s four key nameplates: Old Navy, Gap, Banana Republic and Athleta.
Old Navy is the second largest apparel brand in the U.S., with 45 million active customers and a highly profitable store base where 75 percent are located in strip outlet and lifestyle locations, Nancy Green, president and CEO, said. She noted that the $8 billion brand is on a path to grow to $10 billion by 2021. The four strategies are to win with product, acquire and engage the customer through its loyalty program, double the e-commerce business and via new store growth.
The two largest growth opportunities are active and kids and baby. Denim is another big category for Old Navy, with the brand now including flattering fits in inclusive size categories. The plus-size business, currently limited to online, will be rolled into its store fleet in 2021. Over the longer-term horizon, the brand plans to build on its sleepwear line by adding lounge and intimates and self care.
As for its store base, Green said the brand is looking to grow its network in small markets with populations under 200,000. The current plan is to open between 20 and 30 doors annually in these smaller markets.
Gap president and CEO Mark Breitbard said the brand began the year with headcount reductions and a real estate restructuring. “We are changing the game at Gap and fast,” he said. A reduction in management layers by 25 percent allowed for more speed in the decision-making process, and the brand is shifting to digital as it restructures its fleet.
With 4.6 billion in net sales in fiscal 2019 and 23 million known active customers, the Gap head said the brand will have narrower assortments to better provide a clear point of view each season. It will close 175 North American stores by the end of 2021, which will see it exit mall locations as it moves to focus on an off-mall store fleet. Another component of the transformation will be a greater focus on partnering with third parties for its company-owned retail doors in Europe. It’s also looking at other opportunities as it builds an “asset-light” business model that will include more licensing, partnerships and an expansion of a wholesale model that will see over 50 stores at U.S. military locations, slated to open in the second half of 2021.
“We are radically restructuring to win,” Breitbard told investors.
Gap’s Banana Republic brand is looking at how it can redefine workwear, now that many customers are working from home during Covid-19.
The brand is “famous for affordable luxury,” noted Ann Doyle, general manager for Banaa Republic, adding that it’s a “good business that has reinvented itself multiple times.”
“We are redefining our assortment to meet their needs. When they go back [to the office], we will adjust,” she said, noting that the focus now is on knits, sweaters, loungewear, sleepwear and active lifestyle products.
“We are thinking digital first and getting our products online as quickly as possible,” the GM said.
Athleta president and CEO Mary Beth Laughton believes the $1 billion brand can double to $2 billion by 2023. “Today we have a 53 percent brand awareness among U.S. active women. There’s more runway to introduce more women to our brand,” she said, adding that its omni shoppers spend 3.5 times more than its single-channel shopper. With nearly 200 locations, Laughton said the fleet is highly profitable.
Currently 70 percent of its products are made from sustainable materials, and it offers a comprehensive product offering for all sizes and ages. It’s hero assortment helps with keeping its customer base loyal and those key styles drive 70 percent of overall volume.
The brand plans to add 100 stores, with a targeted goal of 300 in the U.S. It will open 20 to 30 stores each year, and is also looking to grow internationally. For next year, the brand is looking to strategically grow its wholesale base, and form new partnerships to increase brand awareness and customer acquisition.
Gap Store Closures Deal Blow to American Malls
Dozens of American shopping malls are set to lose out on one of fashion’s household names.
The Gap brand is looking to scale back its presence in the troubled mall and focused instead on off-mall doors, Gap president and CEO Mark Breitbard said Thursday, outlining the San Francisco apparel giant’s restructuring plan during an investor day presentation. Bretibard on Tuesday revealed plans to rework the Gap brand’s Europe strategy, pulling back from company-operated stores to pursue an “asset-light” franchise model instead.
Breitbard said the company will close 175 North American doors by the end of next year, a 35 percent store count reduction. By the end of 2021, 80 percent of Gap’s store fleet will be “outside of malls.”
The apparel brand, like many of its peers, is pinning its hopes on a digital transformation. It sees a $100 billion addressable market in apparel, with opportunities in denim, fleece, active and kids and baby, and plans to grow the $15 million addressable opportunity in adjacent markets, such as teen denim, which launched earlier this year.
Gap is also looking to tighten its point of view by trimming 20 percent for its assortment, which will bolster profitability by focusing on key core products.
In the back half of 2021, Gap plans to pursue more licensing opportunities, which it began earlier this year with Gap Home. And the brand will expand wholesale opportunities to over 50 U.S. military store openings in the second half of 2021, in addition to the forthcoming YZY launch.
The Gap brand posted $4.6 billion in net sales for 2019, has 23 million known active customers and an 80 percent brand awareness in 42 countries.
Meanwhile, Gap Inc.’s Power Plan for 2023 calls for growing Old Navy from $8 billion in annual volume to $10 billion and Athleta from $1 billion to $2 billion, according to Gap Inc. CEO Sonia Syngal. As Gap brand restructures, the Banana Republic assortment is flexing to more upscale lounge and athleisure, with an eye to shifting back to professional attire when customers return to their offices.
Source: www.sourcingjournal.com (22 Oct 2020)
9、Another Day, Another Delay and an Extension Request From JCP: Week Ahead
The J.C. Penney bankruptcy case has hit another snag, but this time it’s different, or so court documents state.
The chain, which filed for bankruptcy in May, claims it needs more time to wrap up in-progress mediation talks.
The Texas-based retailer was supposed to have filed by Friday an order approving its asset purchase agreement, along with a Chapter 11 plan and disclosure statement. Instead, the company requested a delay until Monday. That’s because the Penney’s, its two largest landlords Simon Property Group and Brookfield Property Partners and the majority of first-lien lenders are in the midst of mediation discussions hashing out working capital, closing adjustments and specific elements of the master lease agreement. Penney’s said the plan is to have mediation completed before the next status conference date on Oct. 20, before Bankruptcy Judge David Jones.
One key stumbling block is said to be control over who has the final say on the redevelopment of certain properties that house a Penney’s retail store. According to the extension request, court documents said that Bankruptcy Judge Marvin Isgur, who is overseeing the mediation, believes “substantial progress is being made” and that the additional time would help conclude those discussions.
On Wednesday, Penney’s received on competing proposal from the minority group of first-lien lenders, according to court documents. That “proposal is being considered by the debtors and is likewise the subject of mediation discussions with Judge Isgur,” the document read.
The extension request also noted that the bankrupt retailer and its advisors on Oct. 20 will be “prepared to chart a clear path towards the sale hearing that was tentatively scheduled for Nov. 2, 2020. It is absolutely critical to these estates that the OpCo sale move forward and be approved in early November. JCPenney will do whatever it takes to ensure that happens.”
The current plan has the two landlords acquiring the operating component of Penney’s while 161 stores are put into one real estate investment trust and its distribution centers are placed into another, with the first-lien lenders owning what they dub the two REITS PropCo.
Come Monday, if not before, there should be some indication of Penney’s fate. The company and its advisors have stressed their intentions to avoid liquidating and save the more than 60,000 jobs at stake. But it has had too many stumbling blocks along the way, and any more delays would likely add to the already existing jitters among the vendor community, many of which support the retailer but are believed to be holding back shipping much-needed goods for holiday sales until they are certain that Penney’s will remain in business.
Source: www.sourcingjournal.com (16 Oct 2020)
10、Could PREIT Be Next Mall Operator to File Chapter 11?
The Pennsylvania Real Estate Investment Trust has entered into a support agreement with certain lenders that contemplates an out-of-court financial restructuring, one that might still require a Chapter 11 filing for bankruptcy court protection.
The agreement was inked on Oct. 7, according to a regulatory filing by PREIT last week with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Lenders who signed the agreement include those holding 74.4 percent of the $250 million aggregate outstanding principal amount of indebtedness under a seven-year term loan, 83 percent of the $544 million aggregate outstanding principal amount of indebtedness under the revolver/term loan credit agreement and 100 percent of the $30 million aggregate outstanding principal amount of the indebtedness under the bridge credit facility.
If PREIT is unable to obtain the consent of 100 percent of its lenders under it credit agreements, it would move to a prepackaged plan of reorganization under a Chapter 11 filing in a Delaware bankruptcy court that would then require a solicitation of votes for the plan.
As part of the restructuring plan, and subject to other borrowing terms, PREIT is in talks to secure a $150 million first-lien senior secured revolving credit facility, which would include a $10 million letter of credit sub-facility; a $600 million first-lien senior secured term loan facility, and a $319 second-lien secured term loan facility. Amounts borrowed under the $150 million revolving credit facility and repaid may be re-borrowed. The other two financing facilities, to the extent the amounts are repaid, may not be re-borrowed.
PREIT operates 21 malls across nine states.
PREIT isn’t the only mall operator to find itself under financial pressure following the impact from the coronavirus, or Covid-19, pandemic. Fellow mall owner CBL & Associates earlier this year sounded the alarm regarding the Covid-19 impact and itself inked a restructuring deal with the majority of its bondholders.
With mandatory nonessential retail shutdowns in March, even if on a temporary basis, mall owners could no longer rely on steady cash flow from rents as hard-hit retail tenants have been trying to negotiate concessions. Some tenants have also held back on rent payments while concessions are being negotiated, or have filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy court protection. Lack of cash flow has resulted in mall owners being unable to meet their debt payments. And some landlords, such as Simon Property Group, have had to file lawsuits against tenants to get paid on back rent owed.
And even though malls are open again, traffic flow has been slow across all shopping venues as consumers shifted to online platforms in the new era of social distancing and the continued threat of Covid-19.
Source: www.sourcingjournal.com (20 Oct 2020)
11、UK Retail Faces Another Stress Test During Covid’s Second Wave
Already hard-hit by the first Covid-19 wave, U.K. retailers are bracing for a second round of temporary shutdowns.
Data from Local Data Co. and PWC UK shows that 11,120 chain stores shuttered between January and August, due in large part to the coronavirus pandemic. Over twice as many net stores closed in the year to date relative to the same period last year, they found.
That could change over the next few months.
A week ago the U.K. government outlined its new, three-tiered restrictive measures for England, an attempt to curb another spike in the Covid-19 infection rate. For now, retail, schools and universities would be allowed to stay open, aiding a retail sector buffeted by extensive job cuts and bankruptcies following Covid’s first wave. Overall U.K. traffic levels, while improved from a few months ago, are still down about 30.9 percent year-over-year at the start of October, according to retail activity tracking firm Springboard.
Elsewhere in the U.K., restrictions are in place for pubs and restaurants in Scotland and Wales due to Covid-19 spikes. And starting on Friday at 6 p.m., the Welsh government is mandating a “firebreak” lockdown for 17 days until Nov. 9, temporarily shutting down nonessential retail, leisure and hospitality businesses.
The U.K. isn’t the only European country seeing yet another spike in coronavirus infections. Neighbors France and Spain have tightened up measures, with many French cities on “maximum alert.” And in Belgium, a night-time curfew began on Monday as the country also shut down bars and restaurants for a month. People have been ordered to work from home, where possible. The hope is that by limiting the amount of time people spend together outdoors, spikes in the virus can be curtailed. The Associated Press reported Monday that the number of people that residents can see socially outside their households will be reduced from three to just one all month, under the new lockdown restrictions. Belgium Prime Minister Alexander De Croo described the situation as now “more serious than it was in March when the country implemented a national lockdown,” AP reported.
Another U.K. spike would add more damage to an already fragile retail sector. Retailers such as John Lewis, Harrods, Marks & Spencer and Selfridges have had to lay off thousands of workers, while others, such as Debenhams and Edinburgh Woollen Mill, either have fallen into administration or are close to a filing and are still awaiting their fate.
Debenhams, which fell into administration in April, and its second in a year, thought it had landed a white knight last month after it was reported that India’s Reliance Retail was snooping around at the bankrupt fashion chain’s assets. That didn’t materialize and administrators are now hosting an auction for chain.
Word surfaced over the weekend that Fraser Group owner, Mike Ashley, best known for his Sports Direct stake, is taking another look at Debenhams, in which he once held a 30 percent stake. His ownership stake got wiped out when lenders took over the ailing chain last year. U.K.’s Sunday Times reported that Ashley has submitted an improved offer for the retailer as part of an administrative auction to save the struggling chain. If administrators deem that a sale of the chain isn’t feasible, then Debenhams would liquidate, erasing more than 12,000 retail jobs.
At Edinburgh Woollen Mill, the company’s notice of its intent to appoint administrator expires on Thursday, although there is a possibility for an extension request. However, owner Philip Day is said to be working at securing an investor that would enable the value-chain Peacock’s and its Bonmarché branch to be acquired out of administration, according to The Sunday Times. If that plan goes through, the news would not be a favorable for Edinburgh, which is expected to liquidate if a buyer cannot be found. Edinburgh shut down 50 stores last week, impacting 600 jobs. Another 100 to 150 locations remain at risk.
Separately, U.K. retailer John Lewis last week outlined a five-year plan to return the company to profitability. The aim is to report 400 million pounds ($519.7 million) in profits by the end of the five-year plan. Part of that change will be to get the online component generating about 60 percent to 70 percent its overall business. John Lewis will invest one billion pounds ($1.30 billion) into its e-commerce platform to reach that goal.
Source: www.sourcingjournal.com (19 Oct 2020)
12、Apparel and Accessories Led September’s 1.9% US Retail Sales Uptick
Consumers surprised retailers and economists Friday as their proclivity to spend sent U.S. retail sales up 1.9 percent in September, representing the fourth month of gains.
Apparel and accessories stores led the advance, rising a seasonally adjusted 11 percent from August. That represented a sizable jump since August sales were up just 1.4 percent from July. Even sales at department stores saw strength, up 9.7 percent in September from August, which had slipped 2.2 percent from the July levels.
However, September’s data also represented a seasonally adjusted 12.5 percent decline year-over-year for apparel and accessories specialty stores. Sales at department stores also fell year-over-year, declining 7.3, seasonally adjusted.
In other categories, sales of sporting goods, music and books rose 5.7 percent, while electronics and appliances fell 1.6 percent in September, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
And while retailers have touted online sales gains during the coronavirus outbreak, and expectations of continued digital strength, nonstore retailers for the month of September saw just a seasonally adjusted 0.5 percent increase from August. It was the year-over-year metric with a 23.8 percent jump that illustrates the notable consumer shift to digital once Covid-19 struck.
Monthly U.S. retail sales have been steadily ticking up since June, following the record monthly drops this spring during widespread store shutdowns.
“Retail sales are continuing to build on the momentum we’ve seen through the summer and have been boosted by an improving labor market, a rebound in consumer confidence and elevated savings,” Jack Kleinhenz, NRF’s chief economist, said. “A significant number of people remain unemployed, but more are going back to work and that makes them confident about spending. September retail sales reflect the support of government measures and elevated savings that is being spent now that consumers are shopping again. With less spending on personal services such as travel and entertainment outside the home, some of that money is shifting to retail cash registers. All in all, these numbers and other economic data show the nation’s economy remains on its recovery path.”
Economists were expecting just a 0.7 percent September increase, a hair of an uptick from the 0.6 percent gain in August. September’s rise came a welcome surprise given that the extra $600 in weekly federal benefits for unemployed Americans ended on July 31, which some believed contributed to the low increase in U.S. retail sales for August.
September’s data gives retailers a bit of hope that the trend will continue and give Holiday 2020 sales a boost to help them capture a bit of what they lost when Covid arrived into town.
“Consumers continue to prove their resilience and strength through this pandemic. Retailers and consumers are adapting to the current environment, embracing shopping in different ways and focusing on specific categories,” Matthew Shay, president and CEO of the retail industry trade group National Retail Federation, said. “We’re optimistic about the prospects for a strong holiday season, as people want something to look forward to and bring joy to their lives.”
Kearney’s Alex Fitzgerald says the retail sales numbers are “encouraging,” given the broad-based gains beyond electronics and appliances stores.
“The numbers also show the strongest August to September gains for clothing retail and department stores, which will be heartening for these retailers despite the figures still being significantly down versus Sept 2019,” Fitzgerald added. “The release of these numbers is especially relevant as retailers are in the midst of scenario planning for Holiday 2020 and many third-party consumer surveys are suggesting that consumers plan to spend less. This provides another, more optimistic data point for the retailers to triangulate against.”
Coresight Research founder Deborah Weinswig said that though “[a]pparel still struggles,” fashion might “be poised to rebound in Festival and Holiday season.”
She pointed to Coresight surveys suggesting that clothing sales stand to benefit from the return of the festival-themed shopping events around the year-end holiday season. “Festivals draw big crowds: 40.6 percent of respondents planned to either browse or purchase during our 10.10 event, while 73.1 percent expected to either browse or purchase during Prime Day,” she added. “Festivals inspire people to make apparel and accessory purchases: Clothing and footwear were the top categories respondents planned to browse or purchase; 48.8 percent of respondents said they would browse or buy apparel or footwear during the shopping festivals.”
However, Fitzgerald cautioned against too much optimism solely based on one month’s data. “In terms of consumer spending, a great deal of uncertainty exists, with the overall financial security of the consumer as well as the virus itself,” Fitzgerald said, adding that Prime Day‘s unofficial kickoff to the holidays ushered in an “extended deal season” in which “retailers offering multiple sales can test the market and learn from them iteratively.”
“Retailers will have a lot to iron out in the coming months with returns, curbside pickup, and other Covid-related consumer demands,” Fitzgerald said
Source: www.sourcingjournal.com (16 Oct 2020)