2021年4月1日
行業報導 - 2021年4月1日
1、京智囊：沒理由收緊幣策 人幣看升 出口雖受影響 國貨受捧企業利潤仍高
內地經濟持續復甦，但仍存不穩定因素，對於今年貨幣政策的走向，人行統計司原司長盛松成表示，貨幣政策不存在急轉彎，沒有理由收緊貨幣政策。若收緊，人民幣滙率會更高。
他還指，從中長期看，人民幣處於升值趨勢。盡管人民幣升值不利於出口，企業利潤仍高，說明中國產品受歡迎。
撑經濟須保力度 幣策不急轉彎
今年的《政府工作報告》強調，宏觀政策要繼續為市場主體紓困，保持必要支持力度，不急轉彎，根據形勢變化適時調整完善，進一步鞏固經濟基本盤。
據中央廣播電視總台專訪，盛松成認為，現在的貨幣政策沒有甚麼大的彎可轉，不是說一點都不轉彎，「因為當時（去年）就沒大放水，而且從5月份開始，LPR（貸款市場報價利率）連續11個月沒有下降，也沒上升，這說明從去年4月至5月開始就基本恢復常態了，寬鬆只不過在去年一季度而已。」
值得注意是，宏觀政策「不急轉彎」在業內幾乎也達成共識。人行行長易綱日前表示，當前廣義貨幣（M2）按年增速在10%左右，與名義GDP增速基本匹配，10年期國債收益率約為3.2%，公開市場7天逆回購利率為2.2%。2020年居民消費價格指數（CPI）按年上漲2.5%，數據顯示中國貨幣政策處於正常區間。
倘緊幣策資金湧入 滙率料更高
盛松成又指，從任何角度都分析不出要收緊貨幣政策，包括經濟、小微企業、物價、滙率、利率。防範風險和保持宏觀槓桿率穩定，不能通過所謂收緊貨幣政策來進行，而是要通過做大分母來控制槓桿。如果再收緊貨幣政策，利率會提得更高，大量資金會流入，滙率會更高。
數據顯示，2020年受多重因素影響，在岸人民幣兌美元累計上漲6.1%。盛松成說，從中長期看，人民幣處於升值趨勢。原因之一是中國經濟好，而且經濟恢復還會持續下去。其二是中國的利差比其他國家高得多。其三是，中國以前出口的產品是中低端的，現在已向中高端發展。
他又提到，「為甚麼我們在8%的升值條件下，外貿順差還這麼高，按理說是倒過來的，人民幣升值是不利於出口的。因為盡管升值，企業利潤還是比較高的，還是有錢可賺的。企業把8%的升值扣掉，還能有錢可賺，說明我們的產品很受世界歡迎。」
稍早前，盛松成接受彭博採訪時還指出，資本加速流入境內的趨勢正在形成，當前應防止人民幣過快升值，推動資本帳戶雙向開放。
首兩月工業利潤 按年增1.79倍
低基數疊加「就地過年」等因素推動下，內地首兩月規模以上工業企業實現利潤總額11,140.1億元（人民幣，下同），按年增1.79倍，惟部分消費品行業尚未恢復至疫情前正常水平。分析指，工業企業效益狀況延續快速復甦態勢，預計未來幾月工業企業利潤將繼續按月上行。
消費品行業尚待恢復
國家統計局公布，今年首兩月，國有控股企業利潤總額3,752.2億元，按年增長1.82倍；股份制企業實現利潤總額7,762.5億元，增長1.69倍；外商及港澳台商投資企業實現利潤總額3,145.2億元，增長2.19倍；私營企業實現利潤總額3,316.9億元，增長1.37倍。
從行業來看，製造業實現利潤總額9,294.2億元，增長2.2倍，遠超採礦業和電力、熱力、燃氣及水生產和供應業。部分消費品行業的利潤增速則明顯居後，如紡織服裝和服飾業，首兩月增速為42.9%。統計局指，各行業效益改善還不平衡，部分消費品行業尚未恢復至疫情前正常水平，工業經濟全面恢復的基礎還需鞏固。
路透社引述分析師指，今年工業企業利潤的按年數據高增有些超預期，即使去年按年基數低，但折合成兩年來看的話，平均增速也表現很好。往後來看，至少在這幾個月，工業企業利潤大概率按月會繼續上行。至於消費品行業增速居後，一方面是這些行業基數不太低，另一方面可能由於內需恢復較慢。
資料來源：香港經濟日報 (2021年3月29日)
2、港滙跌穿7.77創一年新低 美元續強勢 IPO需求竭 北水流入減
港滙持續轉弱，昨日兌美元跌穿7.77水平，創1年新低，最低曾報7.7746，主要因為美元強勢，而之前帶動港元需求上升的新股集資及北水大舉流入港股等利好因素減退，亦有一定影響。市場預料港滙弱勢短期持續，將在7.75至7.77區間上落，暫時未必會跌穿7.8至弱方水平。
自本月19日開始，港滙連跌7個交易日，昨日失守7.77水平，昨晚6時45分報7.7720，為去年3月中旬初以來新低；截至今晨1時30分報7.7725。
華僑永亨：套息誘因小
華僑永亨經濟師李若凡指出，近期港滙逐步轉弱的主因是需求下跌，由於近期新股表現未如理想，新股集資需求不及之前強勁，而且缺乏大型新股確認即將上市，北水南下投資港股也不及之前踴躍，加上美元轉強，人民幣兌美元昨日更跌穿6.55關，在岸人民幣（CNY）曾低見6.5656，各項因素對港滙均有負面影響。
李若凡估計，港滙短期會在7.75至7.77區間上落，短期跌至7.8機會不大。她解釋，由於目前港美息差未有足夠誘因帶動買美元的套息活動，雖然目前暫無大型新股集資，但中概股回歸陸續有來，或會再帶動港元需求，對港滙有一定支持。
光銀料挫見7.8水平
中國光大銀行香港分行金融市場部資金業務總經理兼聯席主管顏劍文稱，港滙昨日單日跌幅較大，達40至50點子，惟市場並非太混亂。港滙下跌主要是美元偏強、中美爭拗持續，以及近期中概股估值被認為偏高等，均是港滙轉弱的原因。
顏劍文預期港滙短期仍會走弱，跌至7.8水平並不出奇，惟暫難預測何時跌至該水平。由於港美利率均處低水平，買美元沽港元套息壓力不大。
金管局總裁余偉文早前在電視節目上指出，近期港滙稍為轉弱，出現資金流走，主要因為早前有內地新股IPO，在港上市集資後把資金兌換滙進內地，強調與中央修改本港選舉制度並無關係。
港元拆息昨天個別發展，與樓按相關的1個月拆息連跌6日，報0.12911厘，跌近0.34基點；其他中長期息率亦回落，3個月拆息報0.22696厘，跌0.07基點。短息則上升，隔夜拆息升近0.12個基點，至0.03893厘；1周拆息報0.06214厘，升近0.04基點。
資料來源：信報財經 (2021年3月30日)
3、戴琦：短期未擬撤銷對華關稅 迄今未與劉鶴對話 對談判持開放態度
中美貿易關係仍然緊張，美國總統拜登上台後未見緩和。美國貿易代表戴琦（Katherine Tai）稱，美國不準備在近期撤銷對華關稅，無談判者會放棄可用的籌碼，但可能願意與中國進行貿易談判。
她又透露，上任至今仍未跟中方首席談判代表、副總理劉鶴通話。
戴琦履新後首次接受媒體訪問，在《華爾街日報》刊出的報道中，她的言論釋出中美貿易關係持續緊張的兩個訊號。首先是，她稱美國還未準備好在近期取消中國進口商品的關稅。
戴琦承認，盡管這些關稅會給美國企業、消費者造成損失，但同時也有支持者相信，關稅有助保護公司免受外國補貼競爭的影響。她明確表示，取消關稅可能會損害美國經濟，並暗指除非中國改變貿易行為，否則關稅暫不撤銷。
外交部長王毅2月曾表示，中美關係要撥亂反正，首先要打破由錯誤對華認知砌起的高牆。他呼籲美方，「放棄對中國產品加徵不合理關稅，放棄對中國企業和科研教育機構實施各種單邊制裁，放棄對中國科技進步進行無理打壓」，創造合作條件。
另一方面，戴琦又證實，她上任至今仍未與劉鶴通話、兩人互動亦暫未有期。據了解，中美2020年初簽訂的貿易協議訂明，美國貿易代表辦公室每6個月與一位中國國務院副總理會晤一次（當前是中美貿易談判的中方牽頭人劉鶴）。但這種互動已中斷逾期兩個月，下次會議日期還未確定。
何時見劉鶴 戴稱待「時機成熟」
戴琦直指，「時機成熟之時」她會打電話。這與美國政府其他人的態度一致，即在與中國打交道前，要先試圖爭取盟友的支持。
至於中美未來如何恢復貿易磋商，戴琦暗示，對前財政部長保爾森（Hank Paulson）等自由貿易倡導者、和大企業組織商業圓桌會議（Business Roundtable）提出的建議有些興趣，這些建議認為取消關稅應作為與中國就補貼、國有企業和其他結構性問題重新談判的一部分內容。
「好的談判者都會守住自己的籌碼，並加以利用」，她說，「好的談判者不會隨便放棄任何一個選項」。在戴琦接受訪問前，美國貿易代表辦公室（USTR）本月初發布的貿易議程提到，在全面審查對華貿易政策的同時，將動用「一切可用的工具」，應對中國「不公平貿易」行為。
而中國方面，外電指中國暫時僅完成中美貿易協議中，承諾購買美國產品總量的三分一。早前中美高層官員於阿拉斯加會面，雖然討論了貿易問題，但未有具體提及相關貿易協議。
美卿暗示 不就疫情「懲罰」中國
美國國務卿布林肯（Antony Blinken）一改特朗普政府要求對華追責的態度，暗示拜登政府不會因疫情「懲罰」中國，而會強調為防範未來疫情做準備的重要性。中國外交部質問，在疫情和溯源問題上，美方何時像中方一樣開放和透明。
京質問疫情溯源 美何時透明
布林肯接受美國有線電視新聞網（CNN）訪問時表示，有必要「為過去負責」；他也呼應其他拜登政府官員說法，要求北京對2019年疫情爆發保持公開透明。但他強調，拜登政府的「焦點有必要放在替未來建構更強健的系統上」。
他認為，對美國來說，要確保盡一切努力防範疫情再度發生，或是至少要確保未來若發生任何事，能用更有效的方法來減輕後果。
布林肯又指，相關準備工作的一大部分，是要有一個包含世衞組織參與，具備一開始就公開透明、分享資訊及國際專家可介入等特色的系統。
至於世衞即將公布的疫情源頭調查報告，布林肯對小組在中國調查使用的方法和調查進展表達疑慮，還稱中國幫忙撰寫報告，但仍要等發表後再看報告內容。
在北京，外交部發言人趙立堅回應指，中國－世衞組織溯源研究聯合專家組在聯合研究期間，共同參訪包括武漢病毒研究所在內的9間單位，中方還逐條展示了特別需要關注的原始數據，世衞及國際專家給予積極評價，表示中方開放程度始料未及。溯源報告起草工作一直在雙方專家間進行，通過科學方式反覆研究形成結論。趙質問，在疫情和溯源問題上，美方何時也像中方一樣開放和透明。
資料來源：香港經濟日報 (2021年3月30日)
4、港商藉自動化機械人省人力增產能
【明報專訊】香港地方小、成本高，是長期被詬病的問題。近期有港商為了分散風險，在原有的內地廠房之外，在香港增設自動化的新廠房。另外，又有機械人茶飲店吸引到多個國家的商家查詢授權開設加盟店。「香港製造」在自動化技術協助下，有不少業者相信這個算盤仍然「打得響」。
NiRoTech財務總監葉祖禹表示，公司10多年前在深圳設廠生產視像門禁系統，出口到意大利、法國、德國等國家；但近年覺得單一廠房風險太高，故先後在越南和香港成立兩間新廠房。其中香港廠房由2018年開始請生產力促進局研究和設計；去年10月，元朗廠房開始試產，為3間廠房中自動化程度最高。
廠房由生產力局研究設計
葉祖禹稱，雖然深圳和越南工資較低，但通脹和加薪幅度遠高於香港，整體成本上升得很快。以其深圳廠房來說，現時每名工人的標準工時月薪（未計加班）加上資方社保供款要6000元人民幣或以上，還未計宿舍或外宿津貼等開支。
香港工資雖然較高，但通脹和加薪幅度較易預測，亦毋須提供宿舍，利得稅率較低。在香港設立自動化工廠，可以申請創新及科技基金轄下投資研發現金回贈計劃，可獲回贈項目開支40%，綜合來看，在香港設廠仍有吸引力。葉又稱，從管理角度來說，不同的廠房要互補，以深圳和越南的廠房來說，兩地農曆新年假期較長，但香港廠房在農曆新年只放假幾日，可避免完全停工，減低生產規劃難度。
機械人配備機器視覺
生產力促進局為NiRoTech設計的香港廠房，使用12部工業機械人（機械臂），結合物聯網、實時數據收集及分析、機器視覺、人工智能等技術，其工人比深圳廠房少63.3%，面積小50%，產能卻提高50%。
生產力促進局首席數碼總監黎少斌表示，該局為NiRoTech設計的智能生產線，其中4部工業機械人加上機器視覺，好處是機械人不再是純粹根據位置坐標數據來定位、抓取以及組裝零件，而是同時會根據零件和組裝位置的形狀來辨識及配對。因此，若將來要改為生產其他型號的產品，只要自行輸入大約的位置數據，借助機器視覺，機械人仍能夠準確定位及組裝新零件，減少重新編程的情况。
此外，以往處理涉及軟性材料工序（因軟性材料會變形）需靠人手處理，但該局為上述4部工業機械人設計特別夾具，配合機器視覺，可以有限度地處理這類工序，例如從貼紙上取下零件等。
NiRoTech：港廠房投資逾千萬
葉祖禹表示，隨着香港廠房運作成熟，估計在5年內，以生產同款產品計，在香港生產的整體成本可望比深圳低15%至20%。香港廠房投資已超過1000萬元，但只是第一期，其產能和先進程度未到最終目標，公司和生產力促進局一共規劃5期，未來將會逐步升級。
機械人茶飲店最快20秒冲一杯
Robotea共同創辦人謝寧樂和謝新業為兩叔侄，兩人都擁有經營工廠及推行自動化的豐富經驗。有見台式茶飲店受歡迎，顧客常排隊輪候，他們想到以機械人快速製作、節省輪候時間為賣點的台式茶飲店，用兩年研發，系統全自動運作，應付某些意外情况。例如，有顧客付款購買飲品後，卻遲遲未拿取飲品，機械人等候一段時間後會收回飲品，以免運作停頓。
疫情前多國商人查詢開加盟店
此外，當冲調茶飲的材料或紙杯的庫存下降至某個水平時，Robotea的系統會自動發出信息，通知員工去補充，所以該店員工只負責補充材料和紙杯及製作小食。
2019年8月，Robotea在K11 MUSEA地庫開業。雖然當時香港已出現社會運動，但最初幾個月生意仍然不錯，吸引到英國、加拿大、日本、俄羅斯、伊朗等多個國家的商人查詢開設加盟店。到去年初，他們和合作伙伴準備在旺角、銅鑼灣、機場及郵輪上再開4間分店，可惜新冠疫情蔓延，令到本地和外國的擴張大計都被迫暫停。
由於台灣控制疫情較好，他們改到台北開設外賣炒飯店「豐快炒飯」，以自動炒飯機製作炒飯，每日預設8款炒飯，顧客透過自助落單機購買，可加入少油少鹽等要求。他們設計的自動炒飯機每次炒飯後，都會自動清潔。豐快炒飯去年在台北西門町連開兩店，生意不錯。
兩部機械人產能相當於6人
謝寧樂表示，疫情消失或顯著減退，豐快炒飯會在台灣多開幾間分店及登陸香港；Robotea亦會讓機械人處理雪糕，恢復與外國商人洽商。Robotea機械人若調至最高速，每部機械人20秒可冲調出一杯果茶，「機械人毋須輪班及放假，可以不停工作，若夠生意，兩部機械人的產能最多相當於6個人或以上」。
資料來源：明報 (2021年3月29日)
5、中小企數碼化 要放下「做廠」心態
中小企在疫情下冀加快走向數碼化的步伐，但企業老闆對數碼科技認識不深，推動數碼業務仍是難關重重。智能營銷與服務方案供應商WeMine（微礦）聯合創辦人謝偉傑（Horris）分享，不少中小企仍有「做廠」的心態，希望投放在數碼科技的投資可以即時有所回報，但事實上要見到成效需時頗長，並且有失敗風險，企業很易失望而回。
需時見成效 投資有失敗風險
去年政府推出遙距營商計劃（D-Biz），支援企業在疫情期間透過資訊科技方案繼續營運。WeMine為供應商之一，接獲數百項查詢，最終亦成功簽訂數張合同。Horris認為，計劃立意好，不會否定整件事的價值，但成本效益角度看就未如理想，「當初原意是協助企業應急，但審批過程複雜，應急效果不易達到。」他指出，部分行業，例如資助餐飲業做綫上外賣系統，固然對行業有幫助，但事實所見，不少企業只為了取得資助而參加，他舉例，有企業用資助購入NAS（網絡附加儲存）裝置等硬件，雖然符合規定，但實質對加強數碼系統的幫助就有限。
他續指，整體本港中小企老闆對數碼知識的程度仍不足，因此每個查詢都需花很多時間處理解釋，亦不乏有異想天開的定單要求，「有音樂學校就建立綫上學習系統作查詢，但討論間發現，老闆想引入AI為學生表現即時評分，這是兩碼子事，預算上並不現實。」較為正路的項目，包括建立電商平台、結合即時通訊應用之類，因可採用現有技術平台，就較易成事，「我們的遙距營商項目中，SaaS方案與個別定制方案各佔半，後者的進度偏慢，仍有尚在進行階段的項目。
WeMine屬較早期在香港推動社交平台營銷方案的公司之一，現時團隊有十餘人在港，另有幾位駐內地。Horris分享，目前較多注意力放在數據分析相關的項目上，相信數據業務將會是未來的發展重心。
做好風險管理 慎防「黑天鵝」
他續稱，去年疫情以來，影響難一概而論，有客戶叫停合作項目甚至倒閉，亦有大量增加營銷資源的行業，「例如私人飛機與包機服務等的生意就很好」。整體而言，去年中的業務挑戰很大，幸至7、8月開始有恢復勢頭，下半年金融行業相關項目明顯增加，全年最終業務能保持收支平衡。
針對今年情況，他認為，整體環境情況自然有所好轉，企業對數碼方案的興趣增加，亦有利該企業務，但難料會否再出現「黑天鵝事件」，因此無論對該企或客戶，做好風險管理會是重要課題。他續指，商業客戶數碼預算相對以前鬆手一點，企業對創新做法的接受能力提高，但提醒企業進行數碼投資時，不能期望會有即時回報，「但如果企業甚麼也不做更加是等死」。
社交媒體遷移潮 新興平台未站穩
去年底開始捲起社交媒體遷移潮，包括Signal、MeWe以至Clubhouse相繼冒起。事隔數月，WeMine（微礦）聯合創辦人謝偉傑（Horris）認為，傳統社交平台有其「慣性收視」，雖預料Facebook（fb）與WhatsApp兩者用量有所下跌，但其他新興平台尚未站穩陣腳。
他指以近數月觀察，用戶留在Facebook時間似有所減少，但真正取消戶口的人數相信只佔小數，主流用戶相信並未真正「遷出」。
fb用量雖跌 企業客態度觀望
較早前有部分客戶已準備調整社交營銷策略，例如轉戰WeChat或其他新平台，但經過一段時間，企業客戶轉趨觀望態度，主因用戶行為轉變並沒有想像中般大，「未見到有大幅削減Facebook營銷預算的情況，甚至部分企業用戶反而對它增加資源。」
針對新興平台在香港市場的表現，他直指MeWe已陷荒廢，Signal情況亦不理想，至於Clubhouse算是相對保持動力，但亦偏向小眾。他續指，過往數月最大的教訓是，企業社媒策略絕不應將所有東西放在同一籃子，宜抱持初創心態行事，嘗試評估得失，情況許可便勇敢地嘗試新事物，找尋出路。
資料來源：香港經濟日報 (2021年3月31日)
6、明日起所有中國抵港人士 抵港時或翌日以及第12天需檢測
港府明日(1日)起將統一各口岸抵港的檢測安排，規定所有於4月1日或之後從中國各地區抵港的人士，均需於抵港時或於抵港第二天，及第12天接受檢測；而按「回港易」計劃抵港而獲豁免強制檢疫者，均須於到達香港第二天及第12天進行檢測。
而經機場抵港並須根據《第599C章》進行強制檢疫的人士，除抵港當天接受「檢測待行」外，亦須繼續在到達香港後的第12天進行檢測，政府會相應修改獲豁免強制檢疫人士的豁免條件，將抵港後的檢測納為豁免條件之一。
港口衞生人員會向有關人士抵港時，派發檢測樣本收集瓶，受檢人士須於到達香港第二天及/或第12天，按指引使用該收集瓶，收集深喉唾液樣本，並於當天交回收集瓶作檢測。如有需要，有關受檢人士可委託親友在121間郵政局、醫院管理局47間普通科門診診所或20個港鐵站設置的自動派發機索取檢測樣本收集瓶。
至於經「回港易」計劃抵港或獲豁免強制檢疫人士，亦可選擇於抵港第二天及第12天到社區檢測中心進行檢測。受檢人士須保存載有檢測結果的電話短訊通知，並訂明人員要求提供有關其進行指明檢測的資料時，提供有關電話短訊通知以供查核。
發言人稱，政府會跟進相關人士有否遵從強制檢測公告，任何相關人士如未有遵從檢測公告即屬犯罪，可處定額罰款5,000元，並會收到強制檢測令，要求該人士於指明期間內接受檢測。不遵從強制檢測令即屬犯罪，並可處第四級罰款25,000元及監禁6個月。
資料來源：香港經濟日報 (2021年3月31日)
7、Gap Inc strikes deal to offload Janie and Jack
US specialty clothing retailer Gap Inc is to sell its Janie and Jack business to brand investment platform Go Global Retail as part of its bid to prioritise focus and resources behind its billion-dollar Old Navy, Gap, Banana Republic and Athleta labels……
Read More: https://www.just-style.com/news/gap-inc-strikes-deal-to-offload-janie-and-jack_id141053.aspx
Source: www.just-style.com (29 Mar 2021)
8、H&M Group swings to Q1 loss as Covid bites
Swedish fashion retailer H&M Group has moved to a loss for the first quarter, as the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic resulted in extensive restrictions……
Read More: https://www.just-style.com/news/hm-group-swings-to-q1-loss-as-covid-bites_id141069.aspx
Source: www.just-style.com (31 Mar 2021)
9、US suspends trade engagement with Myanmar
The US has suspended all engagement with Myanmar under a trade and investment agreement until the return of a democratically elected government……
Read More: https://www.just-style.com/news/us-suspends-trade-engagement-with-myanmar_id141075.aspx
Source: www.just-style.com (31 Mar 2021)
10、Beyond cotton, another thread in Xinjiang supply chain creates new snag for global textile firms
An SCMP examination traces the supply chain for viscose rayon from Finland’s forests to state-run factories in Xinjiang – and then fanning out around the world
Analysis reveals viscose producers with links to sanctioned entities and factories within miles of suspected detention camps in Xinjiang
Nestled among forests and icy lakes, a 54-year-old factory in the tiny Finnish village of Uimaharju churns out pulp made from the dense woodland that blankets the country.
It is a world away from the clothing stores of Helsinki, Hong Kong and New York – and even further detached from the vast deserts and state-run factories of China’s Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region.
The thread that binds them all is a soft, silky fibre called viscose. Made from wood pulp, viscose, or rayon, is the world’s third most commonly used clothing material after polyester and cotton.
Its highly chemical production process can be extremely hazardous to workers, but viscose could become even more politically toxic given the location of one of the fibre’s primary production bases.
Viscose is produced in huge volumes in Xinjiang, a region where Beijing is accused of putting 1 million Uygurs and other Muslim ethnic minority groups in detention camps and subjecting many of them to forced labour.
Xinjiang cotton is already attracting the world’s attention, and state documents and customs records show that the authorities in the region have been working to turn it into a major producer of viscose and are already selling it to dozens of countries.
“Xinjiang has a relatively short history of making viscose,” the manager of a viscose yarn factory in Xinjiang said. “But it has improved greatly over the past few years. The quality has got a lot better.”
Chinese records show how the viscose supply chain in Xinjiang is intrinsically linked to entities already sanctioned by the United States for alleged ties to forced labour.
The factories used to make viscose fibre in Xinjiang are located within miles of suspected detention camps, according to satellite images seen by the South China Morning Post.
They were matched against open-source research compiled from official government documents, statistics and academic studies by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), a think tank that receives funding from the Australian and American governments.
While the Chinese government has indirectly confirmed that these camps exist, it said last year they were used to provide vocational training to nearly 1.3 million workers a year between 2014 and 2019.
Beijing has described the international backlash as “a strategic conspiracy with an attempt to disrupt China”, and demanded concrete evidence that the camps are used for forced labour
Xinjiang factory managers and industry experts say viscose had been largely ignored by authorities in the US even as they crack down on Xinjiang’s cotton industry.
In 2015, the Chinese government called for Xinjiang’s viscose industry to expand its total workforce to 300,000 by 2017 and double that by 2020. Factories should use government subsidies to bring in more workers with “pre-employment training”, especially in the south of the region, which is largely inhabited by Uygurs, it said.
In the years since, the region’s apparel sector, particularly cotton, has come under intense scrutiny from foreign governments, rights groups and the global industry itself over accusations of forced labour, which Beijing denies.
Now, as clothing companies around the world scramble to cut Xinjiang cotton out of their supply chains – the US banned it in January – observers warn that other textile fibres might also be at risk.
Factory managers in Xinjiang said they were aware of the potential for more US sanctions but were not too worried as relatively few of their products were directly exported to the United States.
“The US is mainly targeting cotton from Xinjiang, but that has had an impact on viscose too,” said the yarn factory manager, identified by the pseudonym “Wang” to protect his real identity.
“Our downstream clients have told us that any exports labelled with ‘made in Xinjiang’ were not allowed to pass customs. Then they came up with a solution, which was to export through traders.”
Another factory manager, identified as “Li”, said: “If US clients want to buy our product, I think it should be OK because our company is not on the sanctions list. But we cannot guarantee there will be no problem in practice.”
Most of Xinjiang’s raw viscose fibre was not exported directly, the managers said. Instead, it was spun into yarn, then fabric and then garments, making it difficult to trace.
Xinjiang produces between 10 and 18 per cent of the world’s viscose, according to various estimates.
Chinese corporate records show the region’s top viscose manufacturer is a state-owned company that built its factories in areas dominated by the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps (XPCC), the sprawling quasi-military organisation that was sanctioned by the US last year for human rights abuses.
The region’s viscose factories sit alongside huge industrial estates, just miles from suspected detention camps, which Beijing has described as job training centres. A third factory is jointly owned by the XPCC through a subsidiary. It recently modernised its equipment.
These revelations may lead to new troubles for a global apparel industry already reeling from bans on Xinjiang cotton.
And as with cotton, experts say the opacity of the Xinjiang supply chain makes it impossible to prove whether viscose produced there is ethically made.
Supply chain experts say it has become impossible to conduct an effective audit of labour conditions in Xinjiang because Uygur workers are unable to speak candidly to any outside monitor.
In an illustration of the challenges faced, the Better Cotton Initiative (BCI), a non-profit organisation that says it supports sustainable cotton production, said it would suspend its auditing activities in Xinjiang for the 2020-21 cotton season “based on the recognition that the operating environment prevents credible assurance and licensing from being executed”.
The BCI had previously partnered with the XPCC.
Last week, Beijing pushed back at the forced labour allegations in Xinjiang’s cotton industry, leading a number of global clothing brands to delete statements from their websites that had expressed concerns about human rights there for fear of recrimination.
In response to the pressure, BCI was one of the organisations that appeared to remove a statement from its website about its troubles in Xinjiang. Its Shanghai arm issued a separate statement on Friday saying it had not found a single case of forced labour in Xinjiang over an eight-year period, despite the difficulty of conducting effective audits in the region.
Yet, for companies spooked by the allegations, the reputational risks are growing.
“US fashion companies are very serious about the forced labour issue,” said Sheng Lu, an associate professor in the fashion and apparel studies department at the University of Delaware. “In 2020 China’s cotton textiles and cotton apparel exports to the US went down by nearly 40 per cent.”
Viscose has so far escaped the public view, but Lu said that “should any new orders cover [the fibre], I won’t be surprised to see China’s viscose exports be affected also”.
Andrew Samet, a lawyer and former US labour department official, said that while viscose had not been named by customs, it was almost certainly on US authorities’ radars.
“If anything’s coming from Xinjiang, or it has a nexus to Xinjiang, it’s vulnerable today on several levels,” he said.
US sanctions Chinese entity, individuals over Xinjiang ‘human rights abuses’
At the same time, the US Congress is attempting to pass the Uygur Forced Labour Prevention Act, which would effectively ban all imports from Xinjiang unless the importer can prove they are not connected to forced labour. Companies and industry groups, including Nike and Gap, have lobbied Congress against passing the bill.
In December, the European Union agreed a massive investment treaty with China that critics say only pays lip service to alleged human rights abuses in Xinjiang. As yet, the EU has not issued any bans on goods made in Xinjiang, but after imposing its first human rights sanctions on Chinese officials this week, there is pressure on Brussels to do more.
“We’ve prepared for any sanctions from the US,” said Wang the factory manager. “What we are concerned about is that Europe will follow suit, and the impact will be bigger then.”
Records show just how entwined Xinjiang viscose is in the global supply chain, including the EU and US.
Chinese customs data shows that almost all of Xinjiang’s dissolved chemical wood pulp imports come from Finland, whose prime minister in February accused Xinjiang of committing atrocities against ethnic minorities.
The pulp, worth US$68 million, was Xinjiang’s 10th-largest import last year. Since 2017, Finnish companies have made US$367 million from selling the pulp to Xinjiang.
Olli-Pekka Hilmola, a professor at LUT University in Finland and visiting professor at Taltech, Estonia, said one of the major mills exporting dissolved pulp to China belonged to the Finnish company Stora Enso.
It sits in Uimaharju next to a railway station where trains loaded with pulp chug across the Finnish hinterland, some go to coastal cargo ports to load up boats to China, others continue through Russia and Kazakhstan and eventually into Korla, Xinjiang – home to Xinjiang’s biggest viscose factory.
In a statement, Stora Enso confirmed it was exporting chemical pulp to Xinjiang via rail and ocean freight.
At the other end of the supply chain, Xinjiang’s viscose fans out around the world.
Li, the viscose factory manager, said most of the raw fibre his facility produced was used locally, with some being exported to India, Pakistan and Southeast Asia.
A report published in January by the Chinese state-owned firm Guosen Securities said that only a relatively small amount of the raw viscose made in China was directly exported, but that a quarter of the exports went to the US.
Even big companies trying to be transparent cannot trace the origins of their fabric, textile expert Sheng Lu said.
When the clothing brand Esprit released a list of its suppliers in the name of transparency, it included a yarn company with no obvious ties to Xinjiang. But Wang said that particular supplier used viscose manufactured by Xinjiang’s biggest producer.
Esprit said it “does not allow any forced labour in any level of our supply chain”.
“We do not have any suppliers in Xinjiang and informed our suppliers that we do not allow production in this region.”
China makes about two-thirds of the world’s viscose, and Xinjiang’s biggest producer – state-owned Xinjiang Zhongtai Chemical – accounts for about 20 per cent of the Chinese total, according to the research firm OilChem.
British researchers, who asked not to be named, estimated the region’s viscose output at 650,000 tonnes in 2012 and said it was set to grow to 950,000 tonnes this year.
“[Cotton’s] use in the apparel industry was five times that of viscose at its peak,” said a Chinese textile analyst who asked not to be named. “But now with the progress of chemical fibre technology, more cotton will be replaced by viscose in the long run.”
Feeding the boom is Finnish pulp. Stora Enso said Zhongtai Chemical had been a major customer since 2012.
“Over the years [we] regularly visited the company’s production sites. During those visits we have never seen signs of forced labour. We are nevertheless deeply concerned by reports of forced labour and discrimination of minorities in the region of Xinjiang,” a spokesman said.
As with many industries in Xinjiang, the goals of the viscose sector intertwine with those of the XPCC, which has said publicly that it wants the region to produce more of the wood-based fibre.
In 2020, the then CEO of Zhongtai Chemical, Wang Hongxin and senior XPCC official Li Bin agreed to “make a joint contribution to the employment of millions of people in Xinjiang by vigorously developing the textile and garment industry”, according to media reports.
Zhongtai Chemical said it could ramp up viscose production because it owned various crucial parts of the supply chain. One subsidiary, Alaer Zhongtai Textile, is the largest enterprise in the XPCC’s south Xinjiang jurisdiction, according to the XPCC’s media website.
Zhongtai Chemical’s other Xinjiang viscose plant is in Korla, home to the XPCC’s Second Division.
Zhongtai Chemical declined to comment.
Beyond the XPCC, Xinjiang authorities in 2017 set a goal to increase viscose capacity by 25 per cent between 2021 and 2023.
In February, Zhongtai Chemical disclosed a new subsidy of nearly 100 million yuan (US$15.5 million) from the Xinjiang government.
And after Chinese leader Xi Jinping used a September speech to call for “the transformation and upgrading” of Xinjiang’s industrial base, Korla officials said the city should “go all out” to connect viscose fibre production to the rest of the apparel industry.
Viscose production is a dirty business because of the chemical used to make it, carbon disulfide. The US no longer manufactures it within its borders.
According to a 2009 US government report about carbon disulfide, a 27-year-old woman working in a viscose plant in the 1930s, after being exposed to the chemical, erupted in a fit of screams, weeping and laughter, fell unconscious and was spitting blood.
“If you were an epidemiologist, you would be looking to see an increase in the amount of admissions to a local insane asylum,” said Paul Blanc, professor of medicine and endowed chair in occupational and environmental medicine at the University of California San Francisco and author of the 2016 book Fake Silk: The Lethal History of Viscose Rayon.
Meanwhile, Xinjiang’s viscose sector continues to expand into the global supply chain. Li, the factory manager, said the price of viscose had risen about 50 per cent since November.
“Our products are recognised by the market,” said Wang, the yarn factory manager. “Even if they are not exported directly, they are still indirectly exported to many places around the world.”
Source: www.scmp.com (28 Mar 2021)
11、China and Vietnam lead East Asia pandemic recovery
The developing economies of East Asia and the Pacific (EAP) are facing an uneven recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic – with China and Vietnam the only countries seeing a V-shaped rebound where output has already surpassed pre-pandemic levels……
Read More: https://www.just-style.com/news/china-and-vietnam-lead-east-asia-pandemic-recovery_id141048.aspx
Source: www.just-style.com (26 Mar 2021)
12、Fung Business Intelligence Publications
China–US Trade Disputes (Issue 37)
China’s Department Stores Report 2020-2021
Where are China–US relations heading in the 14th Five-Year Plan period?
China’s Department Stores Report 2020-2021
2020 was a particularly difficult year for department stores in China. However, supported by the Chinese government's efforts and a rapid containment of the coronavirus, retail sales picked up gradually, especially during the National Holiday period last October and the recent Chinese New Year holiday period in 2021. Over 70% of department stores still managed to record positive net profits for 2020.
Furthermore, consumers are steadily upgrading their consumption. Demand for higher value and premium products such as cosmetics, jewelry, and smart home appliances has increased. The pandemic has also further accelerated the sector’s digitalization and omnichannel transformation. Livestreaming in particular has gained further traction and proven to be an effective channel for department store operators to engage with consumers and drive both in-store and online sales.
Find out more from China’s Department Stores Report 2020-2021, a report newly released by Fung Business Intelligence and China Commerce Association for General Merchandise. The report collected and analyzed data from 82 department store operators. It also analyzes development trends across the sector in the past year, discusses major issues and challenges faced by the sector, and offers some recommendations to further promote the healthy development of the industry.
To read & download the report:
https://www.fbicgroup.com/sites/default/files/DEPT2021_eng.pdf
https://www.fbicgroup.com/sites/default/files/DEPT2021_chi.pdf
For more Fung Business Intelligence publications, please visit: https://www.fbicgroup.com/?q=reports
Source: Fung Business Intelligence (26 Mar 2021)